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STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, Senator Paul, thank you very much.
Let's bring that question to Senator Chuck Schumer, who's right here with me in the studio.
What's the answer?
SCHUMER: Well, the bottom line is, I think that it's likely we will get immigration reform this year. The reason is simple, I think. There are large parts of the Republican Party, even conservative parts of the Republican Party, that want this -- business, Evangelical churches, the Catholic Church, high tech, growers. So it's not like some of the budget issues where all of the Republicans are on one side.
The second thing, the Republican leadership realizes that if we don't do immigration and get immigration reform done, it hurts them politically. And I think...
STEPHANOPOULOS: They've known that for a while and it didn't seem to make a difference last year.
SCHUMER: Well, it made a difference in them not taking back the Senate in 2012. And it made a difference in the Obama election in 2012. And I think it's hit home in a much harder way now.
And, finally, you want to get the economy going?
CBO said that our bipartisan immigration bill would raise GDP 3.5 percent. That's more than any Republican program of cutting taxes or any Democratic program of spending.
So I think it's going to happen. And what was indicative, George, I think, was the budget debate. For the first time, Speaker Boehner said he is not going to let the minority of his caucus, Tea Party minority, run the show. They're the people who have been opposed to immigration reform. Many of the mainstream conservatives, just like in the Senate, are for it.
So I think it's likely we're going to get a bill this year.
STEPHANOPOULOS: I heard a glimmer of hope, also, on unemployment extension from Senator Rand Paul right there. He said he was willing to support it. It seemed that he would be willing to support the extension if it were paid for and perhaps some other growth measures were added to it.
Is that the answer?
SCHUMER: Well, it's not the only answer. But we're going to bring unemployment insurance up on Monday. We hope our Republican colleagues will join us. If they don't...
STEPHANOPOULOS: But the current bill isn't paid for, this (INAUDIBLE)...
SCHUMER: The current bill is a three month bill so that we can figure out what to do after that, but not hurt people who really need this, as your little clip showed. Most of the people I meet who are on unemployment are people who have had jobs for 25 years, lost them. They've been knocking on doors every week.
I think it's a little insulting -- a bit insulting to American workers when Rand Paul says that unemployment insurance is a disservice.
They want to work. They don't want unemployment benefits. They're just hanging on with unemployment benefits. You cut them off, they may lose the house they paid for, take their kids out of college.
So I would hope he would reconsider, pass the three month extension. And if they don't, it's going to be an election in 2014.
I'd make this larger point. The tectonic plates of our politics have changed. For the first five years of the Obama administration, the two issues that dominated were health care and budget deficit. This year, dealing with declining middle class incomes and not enough job growth will be the number one issue. And if, on the first day of the new session, the Republican Party says they won't even support an unemployment benefit extension -- the original round was started by George Bush when unemployment was 5.6 percent -- they're going to show themselves so far out of the mainstream, it's going to hurt them in the election.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But your analysis assumes that the corner turns on ObamaCare.
Are you confident...
SCHUMER: I am.
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- it's going to be working and will not be a deadweight for your candidate?
SCHUMER: Look, look at New York. It's working well in New York. Now, we did not have the federal exchange. We had a state plan. We have 16 insurance companies competing. We're ahead of projections. And I hear from people left and right, I'm getting much better health care now than I had before.
That's going to start happening around the country.
At the same time, the 75 percent to 85 percent of people who aren't affected by the individual insurance, because they either Medicare, Medicaid, or most of them have their employer paying, are going to find that the parade of horribles that right-wing talk radio put out -- you'll lose your insurance, you'll pay more -- aren't going to happen.
And I think that the assets over 2014 are going to increase. The liabilities are going to decrease.
But all of it will be dwarfed by the issue, who's going to get middle class incomes rising again?
For the first time in a -- in history, they dropped over the last decade by a lot, 10 percent. That's why the middle class is so angry and sour.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And that inequality also being addressed by your new mayor of New York here, Bill de Blasio, this week...
SCHUMER: Yes.
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- in his inauguration. And the centerpiece of his plan is to raise taxes on people earning over $500,000 a year to pay for education.
As far as I've seen, you haven't yet come out in support of this?
Do you support it or not?
SCHUMER: Well, no, I've supported an increase in taxes at the federal level, from 35 percent to 39 percent. It's a more difficult issue at the state level, because people can leave and go to Connecticut or New Jersey or somewhere else. So I've left that to them and I'm working at the federal level...
STEPHANOPOULOS: But for New York, do you support it or not?
SCHUMER: Well, I'm leaving it up to the -- to de Blasio and Cuomo to work that one out. I have enough trouble at the federal level.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So you're just going to stay out of this one.
SCHUMER: You got you.
STEPHANOPOULOS: (INAUDIBLE).
Finally, clemency for Edward Snowden?
SCHUMER: No, I don't believe so. Snowden says that he's in the grand tradition of civil disobedience in this country. It is a grand tradition. Part of that tradition is you pay the consequences. If you break the law because your conscience says you have to, you stand trial. That's what -- or -- and pay the consequences. That's what Martin Luther King did, Mahatma Gandhi over in India. The most on-point case is Daniel Ellsberg.
So what Snowden ought to do is come back and stand trial and face the consequences. And he'll have his ample opportunity to say why he did what he did and all of that.
you know, there are a lot of disputes...
STEPHANOPOULOS: And maybe a lighter sentence?
SCHUMER: Well, I disagree with Rand Paul that we should plea bargain with him prior to him coming back. If he's truly in the tradition of civil disobedience, he comes back and faces the trial and the consequences that the government says he should.
One point on this, George, there are a whole lot of issues where there are disputes; how much does metadata helps us in the war on terror? The administration says a lot. Some of the critics say not at all.
How much damage did Snowden do in hurting our agents? We don't know the details. Much of that is classified.
And how is the data used? Were American citizens in the content, particularly of their -- of their logs and the metadata, was content listened into without a warrant?
All of this could come out in trial. It would be beneficial for the country to have the discussion. So running away, being helped by Russia and China, is not in the tradition of a true civil disobedient practitioner.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Schumer, thanks very much for your time this morning.
SCHUMER: Thank you.
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