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MS. GUTHRIE: And we will turn now to the chairman of the Democratic Policy Committee and member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the senior senator from New York, Chuck Schumer.
Senator, good morning to you, and welcome back to MEET THE PRESS.
SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): Good morning, Savannah. Glad to be back.
MS. GUTHRIE: Well, let's talk about the president's healthcare law. And if a picture tells a story better than a thousand words, we can take a look at The Week and the cover. It says of the healthcare plan, "A grim prognosis: the Supreme Court's skeptical scrutiny of Obamacare."
Would you acknowledge, sir, that the president's healthcare law is in peril this morning of being overturned?
SEN. SCHUMER: No, I would not acknowledge that. You know, I've been on the Judiciary Committee for 30 years in the House and the Senate, and one thing I've learned, you can't tell by the questioning as to how the court is going to rule. There was a case a few years ago, the Voting Rights Act case, very important. The questioning was really hostile. It was supported 8-to-1. When the Courts of Appeals looked at the healthcare case, very conservative justices, judges, Judge Silberman in the D.C. circuit, Judge Sutton in the Sixth Circuit asked the same kind of hostile questions and then ruled for the law.
And let me say this, Savannah, should the Supreme Court overturn this law, it would be so far out of the mainstream that the court would be the most activist in a century. Let's look at it. For the last century, the Commerce Clause has been regarded as a ability of the federal government to do many things. The height was the Wickard back in 1942, 70 years ago, never been repudiated, where they told a farmer that he couldn't grow as much wheat as he wanted. As recently as 2005, in the Raich case about medical marijuana, Justice Scalia himself...
MS. GUTHRIE: Yes.
SEN. SCHUMER: ...confirmed this case.
MS. GUTHRIE: Well, that brings me to my question, actually.
SEN. SCHUMER: And so the bottom line...
MS. GUTHRIE: Because, because of those writings, I think a lot of administration lawyers were quite confident that they would get perhaps not an easy ride but not so rough a ride in the Supreme Court as they did this week.
SEN. SCHUMER: Well...
MS. GUTHRIE: But here you have Justice Kennedy...
SEN. SCHUMER: Yeah.
MS. GUTHRIE: ...a swing vote on these issues, doesn't seem the administration can win without him, he's openly skeptical and said there is something unprecedented about what the administration did here.
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I would say this, anyone who judges how the Court is going to rule based on the questions hasn't looked at the history of the questions before and then the results.
MS. GUTHRIE: Would you consider a 5-to-4 decision along ideological lines in either direction the result of an activist court, as you say?
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I would say this, to overturn this law would be a very activist Court. You know, starting to Bush v. Gore and then with Citizens United where they took 100 years of precedent and allowed corporations and others to put so much money into campaigns when they hadn't been allowed before...
MS. GUTHRIE: And to uphold it on those same ideological lines...
SEN. SCHUMER: Yeah.
MS. GUTHRIE: ...is that just as activist in your mind?
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, the bottom line is that there is a broad tradition of support for extension of the Commerce Clause, as I mentioned, as recently as 2005 a very broad case. So, yes, it would truly...
MS. GUTHRIE: Yeah, but there are two cases in the '90s that reined in the Commerce Clause, correct?
SEN. SCHUMER: You know, well...
MS. GUTHRIE: The Lopez and the Morrison case.
SEN. SCHUMER: Yeah, but those are--the Lopez case, that was in 2000s, but it's totally different, and that's because it had no effect on interstate commerce. If you want to make a law about a gun near a school, that doesn't affect interstate commerce. Health care, of course, does. It's 16 percent and half, 16 1/2 percent of the economy. If they were to throw out the healthcare law, things like Medicare, Social Security, food safety laws could be in jeopardy on the very same grounds. It would be a dramatic, 180 degree turn of the tradition of the Commerce Clause.
MS. GUTHRIE: Well, I know you and I are enjoying this constitutional law seminar we're running this morning, but let's look at this as a lay person. If you're sitting back and you're watching and you ask yourself at home, how is it that the Congress and the president, a constitutional scholar no less, was able to pass a law that at a very minimum has serious constitutional questions about it, how would you answer that?
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I'd say, first, that of course, you take constitutional questions seriously. But at the time and still today, most constitutional scholars say it'll be upheld. Harvie Wilkerson***(as spoken)***he's the dean of the very conservative judges on the Courts of Appeals. He said it would be a heavy lift to overturn this law. And let's look at the context. The idea of a mandate came from Republicans. It was--it was proposed by the Heritage Foundation in 1993, people like Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole and that, you know, supported it in those days. In 2009, Mitt Romney, the Republican nom, you know, in the middle of the healthcare debate, the likely Republican nominee, said that the mandate was what should be used as opposed to Democrats who were then arguing for expanding Medicare. So it was true at the time of the legislation, it's true today that it's, it's really outlier to say that this case would be thrown out on constitutional grounds.
MS. GUTHRIE: Let's talk briefly again about the oral argument, and the solicitor general, Don Verrilli, had what most people consider to be a rough go at the Supreme Court...
SEN. SCHUMER: Mm-hmm.
MS. GUTHRIE: ...and a rough start. Take a listen.
(Audiotape, Tuesday)
MR. DONALD VERRILLI: Insurance has become the predominant means of paying for health care in this country. Insurance has become the predominant means of paying for health care in this country. For most Americans, for more than 80 percent of Americans, the insurance system does provide effective access. Excuse me.
(End audiotape)
MS. GUTHRIE: Senator, are, are you satisfied with the quality of the advocacy on the government's side? And, and, and stumbles aside, do you feel he really...
SEN. SCHUMER: Yeah.
MS. GUTHRIE: ...had a good answer for the justices about the, where are the outer limits of what the government can do if it can force you to buy insurance?
SEN. SCHUMER: Yes. Look, on the substance he had very good answers. And, you know, drinking water, coughing, that's not going to affect these justices. They've been studying this case and the precedents and everything else for the last several months. They'll be studying it for the next several months. And it's the substance of the argument that matters. And I think that the solicitor general on the substance of the arguments did a very good job. He distinguished between broccoli, for instance, and, and health care. If you don't eat broccoli, it doesn't raise the cost for your neighbor. It doesn't mess up the whole market. If you don't take health care, it costs every one of us $1,000 on average...
MS. GUTHRIE: Yeah.
SEN. SCHUMER: ...in our insurance policies. It makes all the providers, the hospitals and doctors twist themselves in knots. It's a totally different argument.
MS. GUTHRIE: But...
SEN. SCHUMER: And I think Verrilli made those pretty well.
MS. GUTHRIE: Speaking of the argument for health care, I want to play you on this program two years ago this week...
SEN. SCHUMER: Yeah.
MS. GUTHRIE: ...on the issue of health care.
(Videotape, March 28, 2010)
SEN. SCHUMER: I think as people learn about the bill and now that the bill is enacted, it's going to become more and more popular.
I predict, David, by November, those who voted for health care will find it an asset. Those who voted against it will find it a liability.
MR. DAVID GREGORY: All right. Well, we'll go through...
(End videotape)
MS. GUTHRIE: Sir, I don't have to remind you the latest polling shows that more than two-thirds of Americans think the healthcare law should be overturned altogether or at least in part. We're good enough to remind you of your past statements on this program.
SEN. SCHUMER: Thank you.
MS. GUTHRIE: How did you and other Democrats get it so wrong?
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I don't think we did. Here's what happening. There are lots of good things in the healthcare law, Savannah, and people have them right now, and they're learning the good parts of it. There are two and a half million kids 21 to 26, many out of work, who are now on their parent's plan.
MS. GUTHRIE: But, sir, it's been two years...
SEN. SCHUMER: Five, five...
MS. GUTHRIE: ...and two-thirds of the country wants to see the law overturned in some way.
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I think, I think, Savannah, as people learn the good things about this law, and remember the campaign waged against it. It was a parade of horribles. And those are gradually fading. There are no death panels. I had a firefighter on Long Island come to me a few months ago and said, "By Labor Day I'm going to lose my health insurance because of this law." Well, he won't. So as the parade of horribles fade, as the good things in the law, reining in insurance companies, helping seniors with prescription drugs, helping young people get health insurance, become more and more known, the law becomes more and more popular.
MS. GUTHRIE: Senator, let's talk 2012 politics very quickly.
SEN. SCHUMER: OK.
MS. GUTHRIE: As you can see, Romney is really getting the endorsements of key members of the Republican Party, Senator Rubio this week, Congressman Ryan. Is there any doubt in your mind he's the person that President Obama will face?
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I'm not going to prognosticate on the race, but I'll tell you this, these endorsements actually show the weakness of Mitt Romney should he become the candidate. He'll be saddled with the Paul Ryan budget which ends Medicare as we know it. But even the more interesting one is Marco Rubio, where they're trying to make amends for the horrible shape they're in with Hispanic voters. Hispanic voters are very hostile to Mitt Romney and the Republicans because of their anti-immigration stands, Romney said the Arizona law was a great law, he's against the Dream Act, he's said very harsh things on immigration. And if the poll numbers continue...
MS. GUTHRIE: Yeah.
SEN. SCHUMER: ...that Hispanics are for the Democrats 70 to 14, there is no way Mitt Romney or any other Republican can win the presidency and no way they can take back the Senate.
MS. GUTHRIE: All right. Senator Chuck Schumer, we've got to leave it there, we're out of time.
SEN. SCHUMER: Thank you.
MS. GUTHRIE: Thank you for your time, sir.
SEN. SCHUMER: Thank you. Nice to talk to you.
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