CNN "State Of The Union With John King" - Transcript

Interview

BREAK IN TRANSCRIPT

KING: Good morning. Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.

President Obama this week will unveil his long-awaited new strategy for Afghanistan. Administration sources suggest it includes a significant boost in U.S. troop levels. The official announcement is planned in prime-time Tuesday night at the West Point Military Academy before an audience of Army cadets and military officials.

The bigger audience, of course, is a skeptical American public, which is divided on the question of whether sending more troops is a good idea. And the toughest sell for the president is within his own Democratic Party. Here to discuss the president's Afghanistan dilemma are two leading voices on foreign and military affairs. Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana is the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. And in Wilmington, Delaware, Democratic Senator Jack Reed, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and himself a West Point graduate. Senators, thanks for being with us. Let me start just with the basics. And "The Washington Post" lays out some of it today in this story: "Newly Deployed Marines to Target Taliban Bastion," 30,000 to 35,000 new troops is what we expect, about 9,000 Marines will go first into the Helmand province, where -- has had the heaviest fighting right there.

Senator Lugar, let me start with you, does the president have it right here, 30,000 to 35,000 troops over the next year to 18 months?

LUGAR: Well, the president needs to start by outlining the war we are in. Now by that, I mean, the war not against the Taliban, Al Qaida, but what is, at least, the objective of continuing in Afghanistan or in any place?

That is basic because this has to be a confident speech in which the president recognizes we're at war. the American public recognizes that. Our friends and foes around the world see the resolution. Having said that, then the president has to outline why Afghanistan is important. Why -- now, many Americans say, well, of course it's important, this is where the Al Qaida did their encampment, protected by the Taliban, can't go through that again.

But next door in Pakistan there are also Taliban battle going on there. The president has to mention Pakistan. What is the implication of that war there, and Pakistan itself? Or General Petraeus's survey of the 20 parts of the Central Command, the 20 nations in which there may be other people from Al Qaida, how do we deal with all of that?

In other words, Afghanistan is crucial and we've been concentrating on the number of troops and so forth. Now the president will need to outline that and he's wanting to do so with confidence that this is not a few troops here, a few troops there, a reevaluation each time through. Likewise, he'll have to talk about, can the Afghans to 134,000 people on their own to protect what they are doing? Will the allies from NATO come in? How confident we are of that, all of that in a comprehensive speech has to be a part of this picture.

KING: Well, Senator Reed, I want to get to some of the specifics. Senator Lugar teed some of them up right there. But on the basics, are you ready to support 30,000 to 35,000 more troops over the next 12 to 18 months and maybe even more a year from now if General McChrystal comes back and says, Mr. President, things are going well, but I need a little more?

REED: Well, as Senator Lugar said, the president has to speak to the American people, remind them why we're there, and also lay out a strategy, not just the reflexive response to a recommendation, but a strategy that involves protecting the homeland from Al Qaida.

And that involves a presence in Afghanistan. It involves being influential in Pakistan. It involves having a combination of intelligence, counterterrorism, and counterinsurgency operations, all of these things. I think the president has taken appropriately the time to study this carefully. I think his recommendation will be sound. But I think, more importantly, the president will say, not only there's an increase in troops, but lay it out in the context of how this will allow us to shift the burden to the Afghani forces, to build them up as we go forward.

And the key element here is not just more troops, the key element is shifting the operations to the Afghanis. And if that can be done, then I would support the president.

KING: Well, we'll talk about in a second. First, I want you to both assess the difficult politics for the president. I want to show some polling numbers. If you ask the American people, what should the president do? They're pretty divided. Begin to withdraw, 39 percent. Increase by about 40,000 troops, 37 percent. Increase by less than 40,000 troops, 10 percent. Keep it the same, 9 percent.

But here's the most telling poll numbers. If you look at the recent "USA Today"/Gallup poll, how is the president handling Afghanistan? A 20-point drop in his approval rating between July and now, and a 20 percent increase in the disapproval rate.

So, Senator Lugar, to you first, he took a little more than three months from General McChrystal's recommendation to the speech he will give Tuesday night. Some have said that's deliberative, thoughtful process. Others, some of your conservative friends, have said it is dithering.

Has the president paid a price, a political price, for waiting?

LUGAR: Perhaps. but at this point, that's beside the point. The president is in a moment in which he really has to regain the approval of the American people, as well as people around the world, that we are on the right course. This is why this speech and the plan is so important.

So I'll give the president credit for taking time. I think the dilemma for the president, beyond those we've already talked about, is that the war is costly. Additional troops will cost a great deal more, by all estimates. We have a...

KING: Some say $1 million per troop per year.

LUGAR: Precisely. And we've really not heard good calculations of how much cost the Afghan troops will be for us. In other words, are we as American taxpayers going to pay for this increase to 134,000, even if the Afghans were able to do that in one year, as opposed to four, which used to be the old plan? We're going to have to have a serious talk about budget and about the $1 trillion deficit we are in now and will continue to be in. And if we were talking about several years of time, how many more years beyond that? What is the capacity of our country to finance this particular type of situation as opposed to other ways of fighting Al Qaida and the war against terror? KING: Senator Reed, does the president have to say, I need your trust, citizens, I need your support financially, and here's the end game? Does he need to draw a date on a calendar out there and say, this is when we get out of Afghanistan? And can he do that right now?

REED: I think he has to make a speech that shows that all of our efforts are pointed to our reduced presence in Afghanistan. But I think he has to also indicate again and again how critical this is to our national security.

The elements, the Al Qaida elements that attacked us on 9/11 are still on the Afghan/Pakistan border. We still have to keep up the pressure. But I think he has to make it very clear that this is not an unending responsibility of the United States without limit.

Senator Lugar pointed out the issue of cost. You know, we have over eight years in Iraq and Afghanistan under the Bush administration not paid for any of those military operations. Now that is coming home to reckon in terms of a huge deficit. We have to move forward and support this operation responsibly.

But the president -- I think the key to the president's response is laying down a strategy, informing the American public of what's at stake, and I think that when they listen and when they hear, they will be supportive, but it will be a support that has to be continually developed and strengthened going forward.

KING: You've both mentioned the cost. Let me ask you, we're going to talk to Chairman David Obey of the House Appropriations Committee later in the program. He wants a special war surtax, He wants it laid out transparently so the American people know every time they get their tax bill, here's what goes to the government normally, and here's the part that's going to pay for Iraq and Afghanistan. Senator Levin in the Senate has talked about something similar.

Senator Reed, to you first, do you support that? Do you think it should be broken out separately so the American people get a separate bill for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, so they fully understand the price tag?

REED: We have to begin to pay for everything we do. We're engaged in a huge debate on health care and central to that debate is paying for it. And if we're paying for the health and welfare of the American people, we certainly have to pay for our operations overseas. Whether it's broken out specifically or not, that is a detail.

I think the important point is that we have to commit not to indefinitely, through deficits, fund these operations, but do it in a reasonable, pragmatic way. KING: Do you support a separate accounting, a separate war surtax?

LUGAR: I believe there will be a separate accounting, but in any event, I think we will have to pay for it. I would just make this suggestion, that in the three weeks of debate we still have ahead of us, we really ought to concentrate in the Congress on the war, on the overall strategy of our country and the cost of it. And we ought to be on the budget. Passing appropriations bills in a proper way.

LUGAR: Now in the course of that, we may wish to break out that. We may wish to discuss higher taxes to pay for it. But we're not going to do that debating health care and the Senate for three weeks through all sorts of strategies and so forth.

The war is terribly important. Jobs and our economy are terribly important. So this may be an audacious suggestion, but I would suggest we put aside the health care debate until next year, the same way we put cap and trade and climate change and talk now about the essentials, the war and money.

KING: Is your Republican friend making sense, Senator Reed? Should health care be set off to next year?

REED: Absolutely not. I think we're in the midst of probably the most significant debate and conclusion with legislation that we've ever had. And the health care debate is essential to our economic future. There are businesses and individuals each year pay more and more for health care. It has become unaffordable. We have to go ahead and conclude this debate.

To stop now would be stopping on the edge of, I think, significant reform, which is so important for the country. And frankly, it's ironic, there has -- now under the Bush administration, there was no serious debate about Afghanistan. that was relegated to the sidelines. There was no attempt to pay for it. And suddenly, now, that becomes a critical need that we put aside health care. I don't think so.

I think we have to push forward. I think the president's speech will be appropriate. I think the strategy we'll analyze in the committees and I think we can go forward on both fronts and we have to.

KING: A quick break. The two senators will be back in just a moment. We'll put to them the question, as the president prepares to send thousands of more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, can his partner in Afghanistan, President Karzai, be trusted? And a reminder that CNN's coverage of the president's speech begins Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Please stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Back with two top senators. Republican Richard Lugar and Democrat Jack Reed. Let's stay on Afghanistan. You mentioned before the break, Senator Lugar, the goal is to train 134,000 Afghan security forces by next October. That would require 5,000 a month. And yet, just this past month, the Afghani government failed its target by more than 2,000.

Some would say that this is Iraq deja vu. That the United States government keeps saying, we're going to train them, we're going to train them, we're going to train them, and because of problems with the Afghan government, in this case, corruption, people leaving once they get the training, it won't get done. Do you trust the other side of the equation? Do we have a reliable partner in the Afghan government?

LUGAR: For the moment, we don't have a reliable partner. And that is a question, clearly, of the building process. If the training occurs, will the government really take hold? We don't know, frankly. And we know right now, as you say, that the attrition of the forces that are trained as such and the number of people we have to send over to do the training is limited. So that's a phased-in process, while this acceleration is predicted.

KING: So explain, Senator Reed, to a skeptical American out there who says, if we don't think we can trust the government, and we need to see, time will tell, to use the cliche, why would you send 30,000 more troops into Afghanistan unless and until you know that President Karzai has his act together this time?

REED: Well, we have to, I believe, increase our forces, first, our trainers, which is consensus to do that. But also some of our brigade combat teams to give us the time and also to seize the initiative from the Taliban so that the Karzai administration can begin to carry through some of its commitments. They made commitments left and right. Now they have to carry those commitments through.

The military forces there, according to our troops, are actually very good fighters. But we need more of those units, more of those small unites. It will take some time. But the effort here really is to stabilize the situation and insist that the government of Afghanistan begin to perform. And I think the other effort is begin to, at the local level, have effective governance.

And that means good governors. That means governors that won't be interfered with and disrupted from the center. That is something we're going to have to insist upon. And part of our commitment and part of the president's speech will be to communicate the fact that we have these understandings and that they're enforceable.

KING: The enforceable part is what I want to follow up on. Will the Congress insist -- as a senator, Barack Obama was for benchmarks in Iraq. As president, executives often think a little differently. Will the Congress want enforceable benchmarks that the Afghan government must meet or else? Will there be an "or else" in terms of cutting off the funding and bring home the troops?

To you, Senator Lugar, first. LUGAR: Well, if we have that kind of a speech, then we have a lack of confidence to begin with. Because there is not a great deal of confidence in the ability of the Afghan government to perform. Now we're going to have to get this straight. We are in Afghanistan and President Karzai said this again this week, for our own interests.

Now we said, listen, Mr. Karzai, you know, for yours too. not necessarily. Karzai and others may think Afghanistan has done very well without foreigners for a long while. If we have contingency plans, all sorts of benchmarks, at which point the president says, all right, it's all over because they didn't perform and so forth, we're off to a very jagged situation. KING: Well, I want you to actually listen, Senator, before you jump in. I want you to listen, President Karzai did an interview with Margaret Warner of "The Newshour" a couple weeks ago. And I want you to listen Senator Lugar's point about why is the United States there and does he trust the United States?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM "THE NEWSHOUR")

MARGARET WARNER, PBS ANCHOR: Do you have any doubts about the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan?

HAMID KARZAI, AFGHANI PRESIDENT: Well, Afghanistan was abandoned after the war with the Soviet Union. Not only abandoned, but left to the mercy of the neighbors in a very cruel way. We keep hearing assurances from the United States, but we are like, once bitten, twice shy. We have to watch and be careful while we trust.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Senator Reed, you listen to that, and how -- we'll watch and see whether or not we trust the United States. If you pick up "The Washington Post" tomorrow, there are Marine officers quoted on the record saying they're not sure President Karzai will crack down on the opium trade because they believe some of his buddies are involved in it.

Again, to a skeptical American out there, if President Karzai is saying things like that about once bitten, twice -- don't trust the United States, should we send more troops?

REED: Well, John, first of all, it's in his self-interest and his interests of survival that there be a coherent effort, not just by the United States, and NATO.

REED: Again, we sometimes forget this is not just an American operation. General McChrystal is a NATO commander also.

But it's in his self-interest and the interests of his country that there be collaboration. One of the things I heard -- and I was in Afghanistan on the ground in September -- is that the people of Afghanistan are offended about the corruption; they're offended about the drug trade. It's his people, not just the people in the United States.

He has to begin to understand that; then, in his own self- interest, not doing us a favor, has to operate for an effective government.

I think that point should be made time and time again with President Karzai and I hope he recognizes that. It's not just in our interest. In fact, fundamentally, it's in his interest. If we cannot maintain a suitable presence in Afghanistan, then the prospect for successful government by the Afghani people will be diminished substantially.

KING: We talked about the benchmarks for the Afghan government. They must end corruption. They must do more about the drug trade. They must improve their own security forces.

Senator Lugar, what is your benchmark for the counterinsurgency strategy?

How will you know this is succeeding or failing? What's the test?

LUGAR: Well, many press accounts have said, in Helmand province, the first attempt will be made by several thousand additional troops coming in there -- and the capital, we've not been able to have success. So there would be at least some initial idea whether Helmand itself works out better, and furthermore, whether, after we chase the Taliban out of there, whether people are willing to take hold or whether they're, over their shoulder, saying, you know, "You Americans will be gone and they'll be back, and therefore, we're going to be very tentative about this."

KING: All right. Senator Reed, your test for General McChrystal's strategy, not the Afghan government?

REED: Well, a test for the McChrystal strategy is if they can essentially stabilize, particularly the capitals in Helmand province and in Kandahar, and also if they can begin to see a defection from the Taliban ranks of those nonideological fighters.

And the ultimate test is that there are villages able to protect themselves, with the help of the Afghani national army and, to a degree, the United States and NATO forces, and that you're beginning to see a revival of civic activity, economic activity.

That's the final test, a return to what would be, sort of, normalcy. And that -- that will take a while, but it will be at the local village level.

KING: There's a new report from Democrats on the committee on which you are the ranking Republican member, the Foreign Relations Committee, and it looks back at time at Tora Bora and the early days of the war in Afghanistan under the Bush administration.

There have been long rumors that Osama bin Laden was allowed to escape or that he was there and he was not grasped. Here's what the Democratic report from the Foreign Relations Committee staff says. "The decisions that opened the door for his escape to Pakistan allowed bin Laden to emerge as a potent symbolic figure who continues to attract a steady flow of money and inspire fanatics worldwide. The failure to finish the job represents a lost opportunity that forever altered the course of the conflict in Afghanistan and the future of international terrorism."

This report, Senator Lugar, prepared by the Democratic staff for the Democratic chairman of your committee -- is it just looking back to learn a history lesson, or is it relevant at the moment?

LUGAR: Well, perhaps both. But at the same time, it does serve as a convenient way for, perhaps, Democrats to say once again, there's another failing of the past administration; all the problems have accumulated.

I think we have to accept that there were many failings. But the problem right now is, what do we do presently? What will the president's plan be? How much confidence do we have in this president and this plan?

KING: Is that the way to look at it, Senator Reed, that, yes, there were many mistakes under the Bush administration, but at the moment, now and certainly after the speech Tuesday night, this is President Obama's war?

REED: Well, the president is confronting the culmination of decisions that were made eight years and -- or more before. That's made the situation much more difficult for him.

The escape of bin Laden is -- is an interesting comment, but the real strategic misjudgment, I think, was shifting our focus away from Afghanistan and Pakistan and underresourcing it for seven years while the Bush administration pursued a policy in Iraq.

Now we're living with the consequences of that, in terms of the population of Afghanistan that is much more wary of us because we didn't deliver the promises they thought were forthcoming in 2002 and 2003. You've got a renewed Taliban. You have a situation where Al Qaida has reconstituted itself. You have Pakistan, which is even more unstable today than it was in the past.

All these things have developed over the last several years. But Senator Lugar is right. The question now is what to do about it. Be informed by the past, make judgments based upon the experience of the past, but we have to look forward and we have to -- and the president has to propose a strategy that will carry us forward and that will ensure the security and safety of the United States.

KING: Well, Senator Lugar, then look forward. In a best-case scenario, what should the American people be prepared for? How long -- five more years, 10 more years, 20 years more in Afghanistan?

LUGAR: The American people will not sustain a war in Afghanistan for five years or 10 years, in my judgment. Below that, we do have troops in many countries still sustaining efforts, so we're not in a full-scale war, but I -- this is why I get back to the budget.

We're going to have to take a look at what our own resources are, what our own troop levels are, whether we can continue to recruit enough people and what other things are occurring in the world at the same time. These may not be the only wars America has to face. And that's an important factor, to have at least some reserve situation.

KING: So Senator Reed, five years, 10 years? Do you have a sense?

Will, 10 years down the road, there be 30,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq and 25,000 or 30,000 still in Afghanistan?

REED: What we have to have is a continually decreasing military presence in Afghanistan. I don't think there's going to be an overnight withdrawal of American forces, but unless we're on a trajectory in which our troop levels come down, the ability of the American public to support it and financially to support it is questionable.

But I think that has to be and will be inherent in the president's speech on Tuesday evening at West Point.

KING: Senator Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island, Senator Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, gentlemen, thank you both for your time today, very thoughtful discussion.

BREAK IN TRANSCRIPT

Source