MSNBC Hardball Transcript

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Transcription Copyright 2004 FDCH e-Media
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ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

MSNBC

SHOW: HARDBALL 22:00

HEADLINE: HARDBALL For March 2, 2004

BYLINE: Ron Reagan; Jacques De Graff; Joe Trippi; Pat Buchanan; Keith Olbermann; Carl Quintanilla; Chris Matthews; Brian Williams; Tom Brokaw; Tim Russert

GUESTS: Maxine Waters; Cynthia Tucker; Rudolph Giuliani ; Bill Richardson

HIGHLIGHT:
Has John Kerry all but wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination on this Super Tuesday?

BODY:
CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: I'm Chris Matthews and it's 10:00 on the East Coast.

-BREAK IN TRANSCRIPT-

MATTHEWS: Coming up at the top of the hour, polls close in California. And we'll find out whether Kerry will add to his own column.

Congresswoman Maxine Waters is a California Democrat. And she joins us right now.

Congresswoman Waters, thank you very much for joining us right now.

REP. MAXINE WATERS (D), CALIFORNIA: You're welcome. Certainly.

MATTHEWS: Give me your assessment in-are you for Kerry now? I guess everybody is, huh?

WATERS: Everybody is, yes. Time to fold in the tents and get behind the candidate that has won all these primaries. And everybody come together and let's go beat Bush.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about the enthusiasm.

We've all noted that, coming into tonight-we haven't seen tonight's figures yet-but huge turnout in the Democratic Party. What's it about?

WATERS: It's about beating Bush.

I tell you, we really are going to be organized and together in a way that we have not been in a long time. Bush has just about turned everybody on to elections in the African-American community in particular. And you're going to see huge turnouts in the Democratic Party.

MATTHEWS: Well, tonight, the Democratic candidate said, I believe-I think it was he or Senator Kennedy-said, I can't wait until November, until Election Day. The question is, can you sustain the enthusiasm? I have been noting on these nights, you could almost have a baby by the time you have the general election. It's eight months from now. It's so long.

WATERS: I know. I know. But that's OK.

I do believe that we'll be able to keep the enthusiasm for this election in November because Bush has just about rankled everybody in a certain way. We have so many issues that we can deal with around Bush. And it's not going to go away. It's only going to get worse. And so I think the people are going to be very enthusiastic.

MATTHEWS: Well, let me let you paint by numbers, so to speak, right now, Congresswoman. If I never heard of George Bush, I didn't know anything about him, never even knew the family, knew nothing about him, describe him to me, as you think of George Bush right now, the president.

WATERS: Is he really the president of the United States of America? Did you see him? Did you hear him? He's not articulate. He's not believable.

Did you hear what he said about weapons of mass destruction? Does he really believe that? Oh, he's overdoing this terrorism thing. Of course, we've had problems; 9/11 was a problem, but now he's doing everything in the name of terrorism. Did you know that his vice president was the CEO of a company called Halliburton that's stealing money from the American public? Did you know that he defends sending our jobs offshore. You heard about this outsourcing thing? This man is bad for America. He's bad for everybody.

MATTHEWS: OK, I just got a bulletin in here, Congresswoman, that John Kerry has won the Minnesota caucus as well.

I think that's about what I've been hearing, what you just described then in kind of a dramatic way, the problems people have...

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Well, it was dramatic-the people who are having the problem with this fellow, the president of the United States.

But let me ask you this.

WATERS: Yes.

MATTHEWS: California, has it shifted toward the Republican Party with the apparent popularity, huge popularity of Governor Schwarzenegger?

WATERS: No. That's-that's just a one-time thing.

People were fed up with our governor. He did not engage the public. He did not really interact in ways that created any kind of enthusiasm. We had this huge budget deficit. We went through this terrible energy crisis. It was not managed that well. And so it was kind of a thumb your nose at our governor and the Democratic Party, but that will not happen.

He will not be able to have a great impact on the November election. This is going to be a Democratic state and it's going to go big for Kerry.

MATTHEWS: OK, thank you very much, U.S. congressman-Congresswoman Maxine Waters from Southern California.

We're back with the panel. And we're joined right now by Ron Reagan, who is at the map.

RON REAGAN, NBC CONTRIBUTOR: The map. We get to play with the map some more.

Let's do a little Southern strategy here, too. Just briefly, for those of you who just tuned in, this is the map as it was at the end of the 2000 election, red Republican, blue Democrat. And these are the electoral totals; 270 is the magic number. And these reflect what the totals would have been if all of these states went this way this year. OK, so 270 is the magic number.

Southern strategy. John Kerry got into a little trouble a while back and he said we can win without the South. Can the Democrats win without the South? Well, let's see. How about if you go-yes, if you take Missouri, you can win without the South. All right, there are two swing states in the South. Those are states that went by less than five points for Bush. They are Tennessee and Florida.

So what happens if, let's say, Kerry, the presumed nominee, wins Tennessee, 271. He wins the election if everything else stays the same. Florida, of course, would put him way over the top, 287. So there you go. You want to play Southern strategy here, guys? Panel?

MATTHEWS: OK.

REAGAN: You want to do that?

MATTHEWS: I want to play again.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: First of all, we're just being hypothetical here, to remind everybody watching. This is more of a board game than American reality, but I love it.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Let's me try what I think might happen.

REAGAN: OK.

MATTHEWS: Let's say it's a great night for the Dems and they have basically a split decision with the president of the United States. And I would think that would be a good night for them, to go even with him again.

Suppose they win this time around, they just win Ohio. Now, did you do that one yet, just Ohio? That's one change.

REAGAN: Yes. Well, let's take a look, just Ohio. Yes, they do. The Democrats win if they can just pick up Ohio.

MATTHEWS: What happens if they just win the states they lost very narrowly last time? Let's give them Florida.

REAGAN: Florida, OK. Some people would say, of course, that they won Florida last time.

MATTHEWS: Well, not me.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Let's go to-and let's throw in the other one, the little-the smaller state we spent a lot of time in, New Hampshire.

REAGAN: New Hampshire? New Hampshire?

MATTHEWS: Yes, as you know.

REAGAN: Not a lot-this takes a little delicacy here for New Hampshire. Wait a minute. There we go. OK. Pick another three or four electoral votes there.

MATTHEWS: So the Democrats win?

REAGAN: Yes. Oh, yes. The Democrats definitely win.

MATTHEWS: OK, let's play Republican wish list here.

REAGAN: OK.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: Let's go Republican. Let's get our Republicans hats on and let's think of it this way.

You're Karl Rove. You're President Bush. You're sitting in the room and the council fire is burning. And you're going-I should say the war fire is burning. And you thinking, let's go to Pennsylvania, which is a John Wayne state, not a Jane Fonda state. We ought to be able to win on this gay marriage issue up there. Give Pennsylvania to the Republicans.

REAGAN: Well, then it's a blowout. Then Bush has 299 electoral votes. He only needs 270. So then he's piling on there if they can take Pennsylvania.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: So suppose the Republicans-well, this is really strange. I think, as Ohio goes, Pennsylvania may go the same way.

Let somebody else.

Dee Dee, you get up there. Let's start at square one again.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: Ron, let's go back to square one. Let's give Dee Dee a shot here.

REAGAN: OK, we're at square one right now.

MATTHEWS: The way it was. The way it was.

REAGAN: The way it was would be 278 electorate votes for Bush and 260 for the Democrat.

MATTHEWS: Based on demographic shifts.

MYERS: OK, let's give Ohio to the Democrats, but let's give Wisconsin and Iowa to the Republicans.

REAGAN: OK. Bush wins -- 270 -- he's got 275. He's got five, five electoral votes to spare.

MYERS: And those were very close states.

REAGAN: Very close states.

MYERS: Or New Mexico, instead of Wisconsin.

REAGAN: OK. Let's go back. Let's give Wisconsin back to the Democrats, but give New Mexico. And Bush just makes it. He gets to 270, which is exactly what you need.

MATTHEWS: OK, let's try Hispanic politics. Go back to the way it was coming out of the last election.

REAGAN: OK. All right.

MATTHEWS: Let's follow this thing. We keep hearing the Bill Richardson strategy. Let's give Arizona to the Democrats.

REAGAN: OK, wait a minute here. Let me get-OK, there we go.

MATTHEWS: Arizona to the Democrats.

REAGAN: Arizona to the Democrats?

MATTHEWS: Arizona to the Democrats.

REAGAN: OK.

MATTHEWS: And what is another state where the Hispanic vote-let's give Florida.

MYERS: Florida.

MATTHEWS: Florida to the Democrats.

MYERS: Nevada.

TRIPPI: You have Ohio going Democratic.

REAGAN: Oh, that's it. yes, OK.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: So everything the same, except the Hispanic vote leans a little more powerfully Democratic.

BUCHANAN: Arizona would do it itself.

REAGAN: Arizona would do it itself.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: OK, well, there you have it. That is the Richardson strategy right there.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: Thanks, Ron Reagan.

BUCHANAN: But, you know, Chris, listen, that's key thing you mentioned was Pennsylvania. If everybody else is going after Ohio, the Republicans will be in there all the way.

MATTHEWS: OK. Good luck.

Coming up at the top of the hour, polls are closing in California, the big enchilada, the single biggest prize of the primary season.

Back in a moment with the coverage of the California primary.