CNN Crossfire-Transcript

CNN CROSSFIRE 16:30 February 3, 2004 Tuesday
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CNN

SHOW: CNN CROSSFIRE 16:30

February 3, 2004 Tuesday

HEADLINE: Seven-State Showdown

GUESTS: Mark Sanford, James Clyburn, Jennifer Palmieri

BYLINE: Robert Novak, Paul Begala

HIGHLIGHT:
Is today do-or-die time for Senator John Edwards and the rest of the Democratic presidential pack? And will this be the day Senator John Kerry's candidacy becomes inevitable?

BODY:
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE. On the left, James Carville and Paul Begala; on the right, Robert Novak and Tucker Carlson.

In the CROSSFIRE: the seven-state showdown.

ANNOUNCER: Today, a special edition of CROSSFIRE: "America Votes 2004." Live from the CNN Election Express in Columbia, South Carolina, Paul Begala and Robert Novak.

PAUL BEGALA, CO-HOST: Hey, all. Welcome to CROSSFIRE.

Of course, the Palmetto State is just one of seven holding primaries or caucuses today. Senator John Kerry is favored in five of them, with Wesley Clark and John Edwards challenging him in Oklahoma and native son John Edwards running strong here in South Carolina.
BREAK IN TRANSCRIPT

In the CROSSFIRE today, South Carolina Congressman and John Kerry supporter, the honorable James Clyburn, along with Senator Edwards' press secretary, herself pretty darn honorable, Jennifer Palmieri.

(LAUGHTER)

JENNIFER PALMIERI, PRESS SECRETARY, DNC: Well, thank you, Paula.

BEGALA: Thank you both.

NOVAK: Congressman Clyburn, you are reputed to be the most powerful single politician in the state of South Carolina...

(LAUGHTER)

PALMIERI: It's true.

NOVAK: ... that you can deliver yourself about 25 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Have you delivered that many votes for Senator Kerry today?

REP. JAMES CLYBURN (D), SOUTH CAROLINA: I don't know if I could deliver that many votes for me. But I...

(LAUGHTER)

CLYBURN: No, what we tried to do is to make sure that, when it's all over here today, that we have two very credible candidates coming out of South Carolina. And we will have done what we wanted to do here.

We wanted South Carolina to be brought into the mainstream of Democratic Party politics. And so I think that John Edwards will win today. He will go out of here with a six-to-10-point spread, I believe.

NOVAK: You're predicting

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: Is that right?

CLYBURN: I believe John Edwards will win, but I think that John Kerry will have a close second. Now, if I'm as powerful as you say...

(LAUGHTER)

CLYBURN: ... it may not come to pass and John Kerry may win, but I don't think so.

(LAUGHTER)

BEGALA: Well, Jennifer, that's an amazing prediction from Congressman Clyburn.

PALMIERI: Yes.

BEGALA: That your man is going to walk away with it here. If so, that would be a terrific accomplishment for him and it would be a great victory for him.

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: But I do have to say, he was born here. This is the state of his birth. And where can your man win outside of his region? John Kerry won in Iowa, a long way from his native New England.

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: Where can John Edwards win where they don't talk like I do?

PALMIERI: John Kerry also-John Kerry also won in New Hampshire, which is the neighboring state of his birth.

BEGALA: Right.

PALMIERI: And-and John Edwards came very close to beating John Kerry in Iowa, even though John Kerry outspent him 4-1 and even though John Edwards came from at 5 percent to winning at 32 percent.

BEGALA: Project this forward. Where is-where can Edwards win that's not Southern? What state?

PALMIERI: I think Wisconsin. I think that will be the-I think that will be the showdown state.

I mean, we're going to-we're leaving here tonight.

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: We're going to Tennessee. We're going to compete in Michigan. Then we have Tennessee and Virginia. And then I think-you know, and I think each-we have-we've got a number of primaries coming up that are all over the country.

And the next time all the candidates get together will be Wisconsin. I think that's where you have the big showdown. What we want to see tonight-South Carolina was an important state for us to win. We think it shows it's a-it shows that John Edwards can win a rural state, that he's the candidate that can win in the South, that he's the candidate that can win in a diverse state with a high African-American population.

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: And what we are hoping-and we're also doing very well in Oklahoma. And we're competing in Missouri. And we did really well in Iowa. So we're competing nationally.

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: And what we hope what comes out of this is-and it may or may not-a two-person race.

NOVAK: Jennifer Palmieri, let me give you a dissenting view from Senator Kerry.

PALMIERI: From my left?

NOVAK: No, from Senator Kerry.

(LAUGHTER)

PALMIERI: I'm just pointing out that you're on-you're on my left, Paul.

NOVAK: That's a wonderful place to be.

(LAUGHTER)

NOVAK: Senator-Senator Kerry, see, we have a thing where we have these microphones that are hanging around, so you've got to be very careful what you say.

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: ... didn't bring that up with Senator Edwards

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: ... during our satellite

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: Senator Kerry-the microphones caught Senator Kerry saying to one of his senior aides-and we'll put it up on the screen what he said-"Edwards says he's the only one who can win states in the South. He can't win his own state."

Now, that means, I guess that Senator Edwards got out of the race for reelection from North Carolina because he couldn't possibly win there. What do you think of Senator Kerry's political analysis there?

PALMIERI: I think he's wrong.

I mean, first of all, John Edwards is the only constituent who actually has proven that he can win in a red state, you know, if I can be colloquial about it. He was, you know-this gets to be a point of simple math. At some point, you've got to pick up a state that Bush has won. John Edwards has proven he can win in a state that Bush has won. He can-he-he can win in North Carolina.

He was up by 11 points in his Senate reelection when he got out of the Senate race. And your own network yesterday, CNN...

NOVAK: Well, what do you think Senator Kerry meant? What do you...

PALMIERI: I think that's what he meant. But I think-but your own network yesterday showed that we are even ahead nationally in beating Bush.

BEGALA: Mr. Clyburn, let me ask you about something...

CLYBURN: Sure.

BEGALA: ... not that your man, John Kerry, said, but something he hasn't said.

CLYBURN: Yes.

BEGALA: And that is on the issue of then lieutenant Bush's being AWOL from the Texas Air National Guard. He committed-or, rather, from the Alabama National Guard. He was transferred to the Alabama Guard.

Today's "Washington Post" again repeats the solid reporting from "The Boston Globe" that says, for the better part of a year, there's no record at all that Mr. Bush ever showed up for his National Guard duty. Now, John Kerry doesn't seem to want to make that an issue. Is he wimping out here? Or is he going to be tough enough to take on Bush, who was AWOL for an year?

CLYBURN: Whether he wants to make it an issue or not, it will be an issue come November.

(CROSSTALK)

CLYBURN: If John Kerry gets on this ticket-and I think he will-I really believe that that is the one issue that can make the difference in some of those red states that we are talking about, because South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, we are very proud of military service in these states.

And we look with favor upon men and women who serve their country, who make the sacrifices. And we don't think too kindly of people who don't. And so, that one issue has dogged us in November elections for a long, long time. Kerry takes that away and may make it favorable to us.

NOVAK: Congressman, are you saying that the president of the United States, who served in the Alabama-in the Texas and the Alabama National Guard, and Texas National Guard, learned how to fly a jet plane, did not serve his country? I mean, he was honorably discharged. Are you saying that?

CLYBURN: No, what I'm saying-I'm saying that that issue is going to dog him. Where was he for a year? I don't know. Nobody else seems to know.

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: You mean, you're going to keep pounding him on this. Do you think it's good politics?

CLYBURN: "The Washington Post" is going to keep doing it and other news media is going to keep doing it.

I think "The Boston Globe," if my memory serves, has done tremendous research on this. And I think that Al Gore made a mistake when he didn't do something about it four years ago, let it ride. We're not going to let it ride this time.

BEGALA: Amen.

Jennifer, we're almost out of time. I'm going to ask you about John Edwards's biggest mistake. He has accepted an endorsement from Barry Switzer.

(LAUGHTER)

BEGALA: Now, I'm from Texas, OK? Barry Switzer coached the Oklahoma Sooners for many years. He's...

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: Oh, Switzer told us...

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: This is Edwards writing off Texas, isn't he?

PALMIERI: He told us we were making-we were taking a big risk, but I think it was worth it. We got his support in Oklahoma.

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: My fellow Longhorns are very disappointed with you.

PALMIERI: I think it's helping us out in the Sooner state. I do. I think it's helping us out.

(LAUGHTER)

CLYBURN: I think it is.

PALMIERI: It is.

CLYBURN: I think you'll do well in Oklahoma.

PALMIERI: Yes, we are. We are doing...

CLYBURN: I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Edwards will do a little better than people think in Oklahoma.

PALMIERI: Well, we will be surprised if we win Oklahoma, but we are doing well there. We're doing well, really well, there.

BEGALA: Very quick. We're almost out of time, but Michigan, you said you're going to play in Michigan, campaign

(CROSSTALK)

PALMIERI: ... Iowa field staff.

(CROSSTALK)

BEGALA: You're running ads starting tomorrow in Virginia and Tennessee, my highly-placed sources tell me. What about Michigan? Are you going to run ads there?

PALMIERI: We're day by day. We don't need to be-I don't need to be translating to, like, John Kerry staff what we're doing in Michigan.

BEGALA: They're not watching.

(LAUGHTER)

BEGALA: It's only the Bush White House who watches this.

(LAUGHTER)

BEGALA: Excellent. Jennifer Palmieri, press secretary for John Edwards, James Clyburn, the congressman, the most powerful congressman in America.

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

BEGALA: Thank you both for a terrific debate in the CROSSFIRE.