Hearing of the House Armed Services Committee - China: Recent Security Developments

Statement

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Secretary Shinn, I, for one, think your answer on Taiwan was perfectly adequate and appropriate. A little bit of ambiguity isn't a bad thing. A question, though, if you can give us your thoughts or if the DOD has some thoughts on President Ma's approach to mainland China, and if that changes our calculus at all. In other words, we can control things that we do, but we can't necessarily control some things that either mainland China does or the Taiwanese government does to enhance their own relationship. How is that effort that Ma is undertaking to reach out to the PRC government changing any sort of calculus?

MR. SHINN: As I think I responded to the chairman's observation on this point, it's certainly been a positive political development that the Taiwan -- Taiwanese are engaged in what appears to be constructive discussions or negotiations with Beijing. From what I do for a living, from strictly the military and defense side of the picture, it doesn't alter our focus on our job with respect to both deterring coercion in that part of the world and responding to possible changes in Chinese political intent over the longer run. I was not trying to be evasive to Congressman Taylor's question. There is some built-in ambiguity in our security relationship in Taiwan that does serve a useful buffering function.

REP. LARSEN: General Breedlove, do you have --

GEN. BREEDLOVE: Sir, I would just add that, as you saw before the elections, there was an increase in sort of what I would call more bellicose exercising on the part of the Chinese along the coast opposite Taiwan. And clearly, since we have come to governments now that are a little less at tension, those exercises have tamped down and calmed down a little bit. And this is good. As the chairman has mentioned and others have mentioned, this transparency and understanding and dialogue is important in order that we don't have a miscalculation of a military manner that is more likely because of an exercise that is going on.

REP. LARSEN: Thanks. I think in terms of the communication aspects, too, the establishment of the defense telephone link has been an important step. It's one, you know, small tactical step as part of a larger picture of engagement. And a term I picked up in Japan, visited in January on a trip, was -- and this is from some reporters -- Japanese reporters, the term they use is "hedge and integrate," which I thought might be an appropriate set of terms for us to use in our relationship with China. That is, we want to integrate -- we want to help try to integrate into the international system, be the responsible stakeholder that Mr. Zoellick talked about. But we need to hedge our own bets so long as there is this opaqueness to intention and military modernization on the part of China. This government may not like that response, but that is a very rational response for us to have.

And speaking of Japan, today a Japanese destroyer is visiting a Chinese port for the first time since World War II. And I think it underscores that although it's always all about us, that we see it as a bilateral relationship, it's also a set of multilateral relationships that we're merely a part of in that region.

Could you -- can you talk about Japan-China relationship relative to the United States? And I see the lights are working, the yellow light is on, so time's running short, you know.

MR. SHINN: It -- I think we'd agree with -- entirely with your observation that the Japanese are a critical piece of this puzzle, and in particular the alliance relationship with the Japanese is a key part of this, as you described it, hedge and integrate -- I'm not sure we'd use exactly the same phrase, but the policy of trying to shape Chinese choices and -- but being prepared to deal with the consequences if they make choices we don't like. And the Japanese are a critical part of that. It's why we spend so much time on the -- as I said earlier, I'm trying to adjust that alliance over time to deal with expanding -- with a rising China in East Asia.

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