Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee - Worldwide National Security Threats

Interview

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SEN. JACK REED (D-RI): Thank you very much. Thank you, gentlemen, for your testimony today and for your service to the nation over many years. There are many fault lines in Iraq. One of them is the legislation that is passed but is somewhat nebulous and depends upon implementation so I wonder do you have a sense of whether the legislation that was passed with respect to reconciliation and oil distribution, et cetera, will have any real effect going down the road? Admiral McConnell first and then General Maples.

MR. MCCONNELL: Yes, sir. Well, the belief of the analytical community up there the laws are passed and effective it's going to have a very positive impact so I did a little quick check this morning just to see where are those laws. De-beatification has passed. Amnesty has passed. The budget's passed and then the one that we were most worried about was a provincial powers act which now allows elections and local government and that sort of thing, and we have a report that at the last minute -- as you know, the assembly passes a bill, they have ten days and you have three choices -- agree to it, veto it, or abstain and then it's law. And on the last -- at the last hour it's our understanding that Abdul Mahdi, one of the members of the presidency council, vetoed it.

Now, if that's in fact the case that's going to be somewhat of a setback. There's also another complication. When they passed amnesty budget and the provincial powers they lumped them together. Now, his intent was to veto provincial powers but does that action actually impact the others. So de-Ba'athification is passed -- that's positive. Carbon -- hydrocarbon revenue sharing has not passed. That's critical to be passed. That said, production of oil is up about 500,000 barrels a day. They are selling it and there is some level of sharing going on but they need that legislation to codify it. So to answer your question I would say it's essential to have those bills passed for reconciliation and one's passed, one hasn't and there are three that we're trying to understand this morning.

SEN. REED: I think it goes to the point you made though about effective implementation.

MR. MCCONNELL: Yes, sir.

SEN. REED: When I was in Iraq a few weeks ago Ambassador Crocker and General Petraeus pointed out that there is some ambiguity with respect to the reconciliation legislation. Does it mean simply fire people and given them a pension and that's the reconciliation? Does it mean actually bringing them back into the ministries of Finance and Interior? Have your analysts formed an opinion about, you know, the probability of effective implementation?

MR. MCCONNELL: Sir, there's someone behind me that probably has a better answer to your question. The -- what we're wrestling with is 7,000 Ba'athists that were not included. I think that's probably what --

SEN. REED: Yes, sir.

MR. MCCONNELL: -- Ambassador Crocker was making reference to, and Alan Pino, who's our expert in that area, probably has a little better answer for you than I do.

MR. PINO: Senator, on the de-Ba'athification law right now they're looking at amendments to ensure that Ba'athists who have already been functioning effectively in the government are not fired because of the law and so those should be ready soon but they are not implementing the law until they have those amendments completed.

SEN. REED: So, I mean, there is a sense that there is some legislative progress, but still we have not turned the corner in terms of fully integrating and fully welcoming, in this case, Ba'athists -- and, I presume, Sunni Ba'athists, into the government?

MR. MCCONNELL: Sunnis, that's the key. And I would agree that full implementation is when it's effective, and that's in process.

SEN. REED: General Maples, do you have a comment on that?

GEN. MAPLES: Sir, the only addition, I made, I made a comment earlier about what we're looking at in terms of the Iraq security forces and, in particular, the army today, and the issue that we have in the non-commissioned officer corps and middle-grade officers, and the potential to enable a return of Sunni officers -- I mean, non- commissioned officers to the -- to the armed forces, which would make a tremendous difference for us.

So we're not -- we're not there yet but, hopefully, that will enable us.

SEN. REED: Let me raise another related issue, that we have -- you don't have to arm folks in Iraq, but we have organized these local security forces, the Sunnis principally, and my latest information is approximately 60,000 of these individuals were being paid by the United States; not yet accepted by the Shi'a government as integrated either into their security forces or elsewhere.

Both you gentlemen, if we can't -- if they can't effectively integrate 60,000 armed and organized militia forces, that is -- could be a very difficult challenge to the government, and they could present a force-in-waiting for civil conflict.

So, begin first with General Maples, your comments about -- Can that be done? Will that be done? What's the indication? Are they doing it?

GEN. MAPLES: Sir, I think it's a real key point. The Concerned Local Citizens groups, the Sons of Iraq, really have made a difference locally. And there's a great effort right now to try to integrate them into the Iraq security forces. And, of course, a big part of that is where the payment is coming from.

Right now, from the United States, but ultimately from the government of Iraq. We have seen inconclusive trends, I would say. That is, there is some acceptance and movement in a positive direction, but we aren't at the point where that has been done. And I think it's one of those matters that is critical for us to be inclusive, particularly with the Sunni population, and to bring them on-board, because not doing so has an extremely negative effect.

MR. MCCONNELL: Sir, I'd just add a couple things. The prime minister was pretty negative on this at the beginning. And what's happened is the Concerned Local Citizens groups have been effective in tamping down the insurgency, and al-Qaeda in Iraq, and so on.

So I think the number you quoted, 60,000, it's probably closer to 70,000, and the current thinking is, 20 percent will be integrated in the government. I think that's been agreed. And then the government will attempt to find jobs for the remaining forces so they're not armed groups anymore.

SEN. REED: My understanding, from my recent visit, was it was a, roughly, 80,000 total; 20,000, effectively, but in Anbar Province, which is much easier because it's a Sunni province. And, in fact, I visited -- some of our military policemen are training the Iraqi highway patrol. They seemed to be part of this group that was integrated. But south of Baghdad, in these critical mixed areas where these groups are located, the integration is not going well.

Let me quickly change, because my time is coming to an end.

Admiral McConnell -- and correct me if I'm misstating this, but the last NIE that spoke about the status of al-Qaeda in Pakistan suggested strongly that they have reconstituted themselves in many respects; that they have been able to recruit individuals who are culturally assimilated to the United States and Europe, which makes their ability to conduct operations here more credible, their capacity has increased.

Do you find it troubling, five years after 9/11, that, in fact, their capacity seems to be growing, and their capacity, and their capability to attack us seems to be enhanced over these last several months and years?

MR. MCCONNELL: Sir, I only would modify a bit of how you describe it -- three things that they have: de facto safehaven, leadership, and then the middle management, agree with. They're "attempting" to recruit those that could assimilate, and so on. They've been successful at some level, but to-be-determined if they're going to ultimately be successful.

So, you're asking, in my view, exactly the right question: What is it we do about this? And the big question for us right now is: What does the new government in Pakistan do about it? At one level, they're talking about -- at least at the military level, being much more aggressive with regard to going into the FATA to address this issue.

At another level -- at the political level, they're having dialogue about it's time to open dialogue and negotiate. And so that becomes the question: What's the right course of action to actually be effective in reducing a threat?

SEN. REED: My time's expired -- unless, General Maples, you have an additional comment?

GEN. MAPLES: No, sir.

SEN. REED: Can I, for the record, at least ask the question, which is, do you have, you feel, sufficient HUMINT and ISR capabilities included in this budget that's been proposed, and what you've asked for, that is adequate to the threats that you see across the globe?

And if I could --

GEN. MAPLES: Sir, the budget --

SEN. LEVIN: If it's a short answer, why don't you give it now. If not, for the record.

GEN. MAPLES: Short answer -- it is short answer. The budget's adequate, but doing the things you've just highlighted are difficult because now you've got to recruit, penetrate, and all those kind of things. So it's a -- it's a series of actions in progress. We have been successful -- happy to take to your closed session to give you a better understanding of that.

SEN. REED: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Thank you, gentlemen.

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