Hearing of the Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights and Oversight - The Extension of the U.N. Mandate for Iraq

Interview

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REP. DELAHUNT: Okay.

Dr. Waters, do you have any questions? And then --

REP. MAXINE WATERS (D-CA): I do. First of all, Mr. Chairman, I want to thank you for inviting me to participate here today and for all the work that you have done on the question of our occupation in Iraq.

And while I am intrigued by the way that you have framed this hearing and the questions that you're raising about the fact that the Iraqi parliament was not consulted or allowed to take a vote and it may be in violation of the constitution as this mandate is being requested to be extended by Prime Minister al-Maliki, I am really more focused on what is happening with Muqtada al-Sadr and what it means for him to kind of go under the radar at the time of the surge, and what it means for him to -- we know that he's absolutely opposed to the occupation. And we know that he did have a good relationship with al-Maliki at one point, so much so that when the president of the United States visited, he was able to delay the meeting with the president by the prime minister and then now wanting to understand what he's doing.

Is he preparing himself to take over? Has he expanded the military that he controls? Is he being supported by Iran while we are all agreeing with the sound bites that we are being given about how well the surge is doing and how we have basically created all of the security? Is this the lull before the storm? What is going on, and should we be concerned about it?

Mr. Katzman?

MR. KATZMAN: Thank you. Yeah, I raised some of this in my testimony.

We are definitely seeing substantial Shi'ite on Shi'ite violence. To explain, basically, Muqtada al-Sadr's faction did not compete in the January 2005 elections that elected provincial councils. Therefore, his faction is underrepresented in all the provincial councils in southern Iraq.

Meanwhile, he does not have much representation but his popularity has grown and he's trying, in my opinion, my analysis, to exert influence commensurate with his true popularity even though he is underrepresented on these councils and therefore none of the governors of the southern provinces are in his hands. And he's basically trying to topple or in some way create governorships and provincial leaderships that are more favorable to his faction, and that is leading to violence between him primarily and the mainstream Shi'ite faction, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is very much in the government and has a testy relationship with Maliki but basically is his ally at this point.

REP. WATERS: So where is that going to take us? I mean, where does it lead to?

MR. KATZMAN: Well, I agree with you that he is hungry for more power. He does want to be in a leadership role in determining outcomes, and he wants to be seen as the protector of the Shi'ite majority in Iraq.

I'm not sure whether he has pretenses to ultimate leadership in Iraq. That's not clear. But at the very least he wants substantially more influence over decisions than he now has.

REP. WATERS: I think there were some numbers that we were given at one point that his militia was about, what, 50,000 in number. Has it grown?

MR. KATZMAN: Fifty to sixty thousand. It remains steady, roughly, by all estimates -- 50(,000) to 60,000, yeah.

REP. WATERS: And he has access to weapons, his own avenue for acquisition of weapons, be it Iran or other places where he could be getting it? Does he have that kind of power?

MR. KATZMAN: He is widely believed to be receiving weaponry from Iran, yes, ma'am.

REP. WATERS: So while I'm interested certainly in the chairman's pursuit of the constitutional rights of the parliament, I guess what I'm questioning myself about is whether or not it matters as much if in fact there's impending further civil war that perhaps would be led by Muqtada al-Sadr.

MR. KATZMAN: This is very possible. His militia is widely attributed -- a lot of the sectarian cleansing that we've seen in Baghdad neighborhoods is widely attributed to his Jaish al- Mahdi militia, yes.

REP. WATERS: And just one other thing. Since he's been described the way that you're describing him and his quest for power, etcetera, we know for sure that he is adamantly opposed to the occupation?

MR. KATZMAN: That is something I would say is not clear.

I think he's used the term occupation, you know, to rally his followers and his flock and show that he's a nationalist. However, I do believe that if the United States were to suddenly agree not to perform any combat against his militia, his rhetoric would -- I believe occupation is really his way of expressing that U.S. forces are against him. That's my analysis.

REP. WATERS: But isn't that consistent with what the parliament is saying? We feel as if your presence here is occupation; we would like to see you go home?

MR. KATZMAN: Most of the factions that are against the U.S. presence feel that the U.S. forces that entered Iraq and are in Iraq are against them, yes.

REP. WATERS: Could we safely say that the parliament and Muqtada al-Sadr's perspective are the same and that portends more potential power for him if he's aligned with the thinking of the parliament about the United States presence?

MR. KATZMAN: There is potential for him to attract more support among Sunnis and others who are against the U.S. presence.

But we're also, as I said, seeing a countertrend among many Sunnis who now are not opposing our presence because we have now signed cease-fire agreements with them and they now see us as in some way supporting them.

REP. WATERS: Thank you.

Thank you very much.

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