Hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee - Lebanon on the Brink
Interview
Hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee - Lebanon on the Brink
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REP. JIM COSTA (D-CA): Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate the time and the effort that you and the ranking member and others have spent.
Ambassador Welch, it's clearly, I think, on all of our minds how we try to do everything we possibly can to ensure that a stable, democratic Lebanon is able to succeed in the difficult challenges that face us, and I thought you did a good job this morning in outlining what those challenges were. I want to follow up on a couple questions that some of my colleagues had raised and give a little more explanation.
As we look at the build-up of arms following the efforts with Hezbollah over a year ago and we look at the rebuilding of those arms in southern Lebanon, you talked at great length about the porous borders. Have we been able to determine in fact where those arms have come from, those rockets? I mean, clearly it seems to be either from, in my view, Iran, which of course we have no relationships with, or the Chinese. Have we talked about the Chinese who are selling weapons in the open market about their own obligations, from ensuring that those weapons that they are selling don't wind up in the hands of terrorists?
MR. WELCH: Mr. Costa, it's going to be hard for me to give a really good answer to your question in an open session like this. We believe with respect to the small arms that come through sometimes it's very hard to determine the origin as a flourishing small arms market and the manufacture of certain kinds of these weapons has now spread to a number of countries, so it's often hard to determine where they come from.
With respect to the longer-range crew-served weapons --
REP. COSTA: Right.
MR. WELCH: -- the rockets and that sort of thing, I think we have a very, very strong indicator that some of those are Iranian in manufacture. Whether other countries have supplied them to Iran or not is frequently hard to determine, because the Iranians have an arms industry of their own.
There are a number of ways to discern -- to -- there's several bodies of evidence to point to as to why I reach that conclusion, and I'm not really able to discuss that in open session.
REP. COSTA: Well, hopefully we can get some additional information in a closed session.
MR. WELCH: I'm happy to do so.
REP. COSTA: Let me pursue two other areas that I wanted to question you on. Clearly you spoke about the impact of the UNIFIL troops and their -- changing of their operational practices in terms of the lower profile. You also talked about the Germans assisting now with a patrol in southern Lebanon.
I mean, some of us think that when you look at what's transformed over the last 18 months, two years, that Hezbollah has in fact -- on its own has been able to undo all of the achievements that were -- we had hoped that would be realized by the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. What would be your assessment of where we are today?
MR. WELCH: Sir, I wouldn't take -- I guess, with respect, I would not share that assessment. I believe that this resolution has been effective in assuring security in the areas that UNIFIL covers. There are capable troops in UNIFIL. It's at an historic high in terms of the number of those deployed. There are quality military organizations there, the French, Spanish, Italians, Germans all represented, and they have capable military units. Their operations are solid.
There is not a discernible Hezbollahi armed presence in the UNIFIL areas of operation anymore. This presents a significant military obstacle for them to overcome.
A second element that's completely different since August '06 is the Lebanese army is deployed in southern Lebanon for the first time since the 1960s, and it has over 10,000 troops down there. These are -- the combination of these two things provides, I think, for a completely different security environment in southern Lebanon.
REP. COSTA: The totality of the troop strength of the Lebanese army today is -- ? (Pause.)
MR. WELCH: I -- rather than completely wing it, I'd rather not give you an exact number.
REP. COSTA: (Chuckles.)
MR. WELCH: My impression -- it's around 40,000. As I mentioned earlier, this is not a very large army -- (inaudible) --
REP. COSTA: No, I understand that. We note the size of the -- (inaudible).
My final question, I guess, is, as I said on the outset, I think we're all very concerned that -- and as we look at what tools we have out there to try to assist in a stabilization of this Siniora government, this democratic effort, the elections that you spoke of, is there anything that you haven't explained yet in your testimony this morning that can be done with regards to the community of nations to provide additional support to the Beirut government, to ensure that stabilization, to ensure that democratic government, in light of Syria and Hezbollah and the problems with Iran? What more, I guess, in terms of ourselves, NATO and the European Union can be done with regards to money, weapons and political support that we should be attempting to work together on a collaborative effort that has not been yet done, yet, at this time?
MR. WELCH: Congressman Costa, I believe that the political element of this is fundamental.
This is essentially a political struggle in Lebanon, and the divide between the majority and the opposition is a political divide. On both sides are Lebanese, and I believe they need to see that the international community supports three things.
First, an election, as I described, in accordance with the constitution and on time for a figure who can genuinely represent the country of Lebanon.
Number two, after the election they form a new Cabinet as they would normally do after an election there.
And that number three, that Cabinet pursues responsible programs and policies, and for us that means that it supports the U.N. resolutions, including the one you mentioned earlier, as well as the international tribunal. Those are the elements of the political way forward in Lebanon. That's what we've called for and we believe that there's very good support internationally and regionally for that.
I believe, sir -- and it's one of the reasons that this hearing is important to me -- that this is a message that has to go out every single day, and it must not abate or flag before the Lebanese election. People are watching this and perhaps in the region a lot more closely than in our own country, but that's -- we need to send that signal strongly and constantly. That's why I think that this hearing today is especially important because I know people in the region and in Lebanon particularly who watch it.
REP. COSTA: Mr. Chairman, I said that was the last question, but his response reminded me of a book that I -- a number of years ago that -- Friedman's book, "From Beirut to Jerusalem," and I'm reminded of his description of the 1980s when he was in Beirut and the multitude of factions that existed then among the Lebanese and to some extent obviously still exist today. And I'm wondering if you could describe for us the level of maturity and sophistication in which those groups work together today that seemingly they were unable to work together back in the 1980s.
MR. WELCH: Well, that's a very good question because in a way part of the current vulnerability of Lebanon lies in the history of division during that period. There's a really important difference -- actually two. In 1982, about the time that Tom Friedman was a New York Times correspondent in Beirut -- and by the way, Ryan Crocker, our current ambassador to Iraq, was head of the political section there. I was the Lebanese desk officer, so whether or not you're dealing with the same constellation of individuals in the press in government --
REP. COSTA: That actually gives me reassurance.
MR. WELCH: (Laughs.) Thank you.
Today, the only armed militia in Lebanon is Hezbollah. In 1982, you had a bunch of armed militia. I think Lebanese do not want to return to that day when to protect themselves, regrettably against each other, they were forced to arm.
Today the Christian militias are disarmed, the Druze militias disarmed, one part of the Shi'a community is disarmed, but one big part is not. That's both a danger and a positive signal. The danger is that, of course, one party wants to use power, by arms, to impose itself politically. The opportunity is that most Lebanese disagree. They would like to see a future in which the monopoly of force lies in the hands of their legitimate government. That's what we want to see, too.
Yes, some of the same politicians are there, leaders of their communities. But that's not unique to Lebanon, certainly in the area or even outside it. There is a new generation of Lebanese -- I think we saw those people pour into the streets in the spring of '05 --
REP. COSTA: The Cedar Revolution.
MR. WELCH: -- and they didn't represent any single community. They represented all the communities. And hat's the hope for the future there.
And I think Lebanon, too, to this day, as it has in the last -- in the post-colonial period in the Middle East, represents a beacon to the area. Too often that beacon has been clouded by violence, but still many people in the area look to Lebanon with affection and respect, want to see a better future for it.
REP. COSTA: The so-called Paris of the Middle East.
MR. WELCH: Exactly.
REP. COSTA: Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for this hearing, and thank you Mr. Chairman, for your indulgence.
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