Dear President Joe Biden,
It has come to our attention that you may be considering a re-entry to the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) without first pursuing any changes to the 2015 agreement. It is critically
important that you do not allow history to repeat itself with a fatally flawed Iran Nuclear Deal.
For a variety of reasons that include the expiring sunset clauses and a flawed verification
agreement, this would be a strategic US foreign policy blunder, exponentially more dangerous
than the consequences of the original misguided approach. As is, this deal is not a pathway to
prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. It is a blueprint for exactly how Iran can secure
massive sums of money and obtain a nuclear weapon in short order. Compounding the threat,
this approach turns a blind eye to Iran's non-nuclear destabilizing activities throughout the
world, such as its support for international terrorism and continued development of its ballistic
missile arsenal.
The decision not to recertify the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2017 was in America's best interests. Even
if the United States never withdrew from the deal, poorly construed sunset provisions baked into
the deal would now be upon us, meaning Iran would be well on its way to obtaining a nuclear
weapon while having violated not only the spirit but the letter of the deal.
House Democrats claim the JCPOA "verifiably constrained Iran's nuclear program." However,
in violation of the deal, prior to U.S. withdrawal from the agreement, Iran tested more IR-8 and
IR-6 centrifuges than permitted under the JCPOA. Iran also attempted to acquire carbon fiber
that it had agreed not to obtain and stockpiled more heavy water than was allowed under the
JCPOA. Even though the United States insisted there would be inspections "where necessary,
when necessary" of Iran's military sites, the Iranians made it consistently clear-- both before and
after this agreement-- that it would never be permitted. What's more, no U.S. inspectors were
allowed to participate in the verification regime that is included in the JCPOA.
Worst of all, the verification agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) remains a great mystery to this day and still hasn't been submitted to Congress.
During testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, former Secretary of State John Kerry
admitted even he had not read the verification regime detailed in those secret side deals.
President Obama said that the Iran Nuclear Agreement was not based on trust, but verification.
How can the U.S. sign off on a verification regime it's never read?
Some have said that returning both Iran and the US to compliance with the JCPOA must be "the
starting point for further negotiations." That's not an option. As the Director General of the
IAEA, Rafael Grossi, pointed out late last year, there are too many breaches of this agreement to
simply wish everything could just fall right back into place as is. Grossi made clear that going
back to square one is impossible at this point, "because square one is no longer there."
Iran is violating both the uranium enrichment levels and amount of stockpiled enriched uranium
it can hold pursuant to the JCPOA in the following ways:
1. In May 2019, Iran stopped selling its enriched uranium and heavy water deposits.
2. In July 2019, Iran began enriching uranium to ~4.5%, above the 3.67% limit established
in the JCPOA.
3. In September 2019, Iran abandoned all the commitments that were in place regarding
research and development of centrifuges.
4. As of November 6, 2019, Iran was enriching uranium gas at Fordow. Under the JCPOA,
no nuclear material was permitted at Fordow.
5. As of November 2020, according to the IAEA, Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium
was 12-times greater than that which was permitted under the JCPOA.
6. In January 2021, Iran commenced the enrichment of uranium at Fordow to 20% purity.
With one directive from the Ayatollah, Iran was able to ramp up its nuclear program to pre-deal
levels within days, demonstrating the weakness of the agreement. Neither our European partners
nor any international body was able to prevent Iran from taking such steps, despite still being
technically bound to the agreement.
With the dawn of a new administration, the United States maximum pressure campaign crippled
the Iranian regime, killed Qassim Soleimani, and deterred Iran's other malign activities in the
region. House Democrats spuriously claim that withdrawal from the JCPOA eliminated "U.S.
leverage in addressing other national security issues with Iran." The reality is that the agreement
itself eliminated any leverage by negotiating away all of the sanctions that brought Iran to the
table in the first place. The misguided approach that brought us the JCPOA siloed off the nuclear
issue from all other national security threats emanating from Iran, thereby failing to address any
of Iran's other malign activities by design. This coupled with a wholesale unwinding of sanctions
on Iran enabled Tehran to double down on the very nefarious behavior the negotiators of the
JCPOA promised us the deal would moderate. The ayatollahs increased their sponsorship of
terrorism and development of Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), all while still
unjustly imprisoning American citizens.
Iran does not respect weakness. It only respects strength. Use of force and military action should
always be the last possible option, but we must keep it on the table, not because we want war, but
because we want to prevent it. Our other instruments of national power, such as diplomatic and
economic pressure, can become greater tools in this effort when Iran understands that the
military option is on the table and real.
In stark contrast to this progress, some Members are now urging the United States to reenter the
Iran Nuclear Deal with no new conditions, requirements or other updates to the JCPOA. Iran
doesn't want the U.S. to reenter the JCPOA for their love of humanity. Iran wants this because it
knows what to expect from last time around: making out like bandits with the sanctions relief,
and ramping up its other non-nuclear malign activities, while still securing their nuclear weapons
capability.
This misconceived approach also flies in the face of the changing facts on the ground in the
region. The Middle East has been undergoing an advantageous and unprecedented realignment
where Israel and other nations in the region are uniting and strengthening ties determined to
successfully confront a common adversary in Iran. The United Arab of Emirates, Bahrain,
Sudan, and Morocco have all chosen to strengthen its ties with Israel and peace in the region by
signing the historic Abraham Accords, forging regional alliances better capable of countering
Iranian influence. We must not naively ignore the developments that have taken shape since
2015 and re-enter a dated nuclear deal that does not reflect these important geopolitical shifts in
the region.
The United States must heed key lessons learned from the 2015 negotiations with Iran. Then,
like now, Iran wants the U.S. to come to the negotiating table due to the biting pain of our
maximum pressure sanctions regime. The United States must not once again abandon the
leverage that is bringing Iran back to the negotiating table without confronting both Iran's
nuclear and non-nuclear activities that need to be stopped. Additionally, when redlines are
established for talks, the United States must either stand by those parameters or not set those
redlines at all. We must also be fully prepared to walk away if necessary. We urge the new
administration to recall "no deal is better than a bad deal." If an agreement is reached, it should
be of the nature to receive broad bipartisan support from Congress and be submitted to the
United States Senate to be ratified as a treaty.
We must all learn from the lessons of the past and ensure that any future nuclear agreement
signed between the US and Iran is binding, sustainable, verifiable, and supported by our regional
allies. We must not be naive, desperate or weak in how we move forward. The irony of the
House Democrats' call in their letter to you is that trying to reenter the 2015 JCPOA as is would
be the "potentially devastating miscalculation." We must approach Iran from a position of
strength and not surrender for sake of domestic politics or partisan emotions. The United States
must heed its lessons from the past several years, be smart, courageous, and strong,
understanding that the weak and desperate adversary is this Iranian regime, not ourselves. We are
ready and willing to work closely with you to achieve the goal of preventing a nuclear armed
Iran and effectively inhibiting its ability to sow chaos in the region.
Sincerely,