State of the Economy
Floor Speech
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I come to the floor this afternoon with a number of my Democratic colleagues to speak about the subject of paramount concern for most Americans: the economy. Healthcare, the economy, and their jobs are what folks are focused on when they wake up in the morning.
The Joint Economic Committee now headed on our side of the aisle by Don Beyer from Virginia, released two reports today that all Americans should look at carefully. One of them focuses on the failure of the 2017 Trump tax cuts which Chairman Neal will be focusing on shortly.
Republicans claim that the tax cuts would pay for themselves and not add a penny to deficits and debt. That is a theory that we have heard time and time again from Republicans to support their tax cuts for the wealthiest in our country. Both experience and evidence tell us that their tax cuts always end up driving our deficits up, hurting the middle class, and placing the burden on future generations.
I hope Americans will read that report and draw the same conclusions that so many economists have made about the dangerous tax scam.
The second report which we will be focusing on this evening concerns the economy more broadly. It asks a question that many Americans may be asking this year: Is the Trump economy doing as well as the President claimed it would?
And: Can the President take credit for economic growth that began long before he took office?
I want to thank the gentleman from Virginia (Mr. Beyer) for his efforts as vice chair of the Joint Economic Committee, as well as the former vice chair, Carolyn Maloney, who now heads up the Oversight and Reform Committee.
I will be yielding to Mr. Beyer soon to speak more about the content of the committee's report. He will be followed by Mr. Neal who is the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and a senior member of this body. He is probably one of the most knowledgeable people, not only about taxes, but about the economy in general.
But first I want to speak a little bit about this President's record on the economy.
President Trump sought office on a raft of economic promises. He promised to create 25 million new jobs in 10 years.
He promised 6 percent growth in our domestic product.
He promised to eliminate the $19 trillion national debt.
He promised to get wages up for American workers with $4,000 raises as a result of the tax cuts.
And the President promised to make healthcare much less expensive and much better.
Let's see how he is doing.
On the first measure, job growth, job growth has slowed under President Trump. Let me repeat that. Job growth has slowed under President Trump compared to the level of the economic expansion that began under his predecessor.
This chart--and it will probably be hard to see for many viewers-- shows that job growth was highest here in the years before President Trump took office and then lower, following.
Now, what does that mean?
Let me give you the big figure, Madam Speaker, because the specifics of the chart will be difficult for people to see on the floor and in the gallery.
What it means is that, on average--and this is an important fact to remember--under President Obama, there were 227,000 jobs created per month over the last 35 months of his term.
Now we have had 35 months of the Trump term. What has he done to realize that promise of 25 million jobs?
Madam Speaker, 36,000 less jobs per month have been created under Donald Trump than under Barack Obama in the same timeframe.
Now, that is important because the President, of course, claims that this is the best economy we have ever seen. As I said, that is 36,000 fewer jobs per month, and 1.26 million fewer jobs over President Trump's term from the trend he inherited.
Madam Speaker, I am going to show you a chart on how the economy that President Obama had put in place with the help of the Congress was going straight up.
At this pace, President Trump's 4-year term will not achieve the same level of job creation as the previous 4-year term of President Obama. In fact, he would fall--listen to this figure--2.5 million jobs short.
So, when we hear the President at a rally claiming this great economic boom, remember, 2.5 million less jobs created.
President Trump also loves to cite the low unemployment rate, which, in December 2019, stood at 3.5 percent. That is, indeed, a low number. It is a good number in the sense that it shows that so many of our people are working. But underlying those facts are so many of our people are working one, two, and three jobs so they can support themselves and their family.
Now, when he took office, the rate was 4.7 percent. It is 3.5 percent now and 4.7 percent when he took office. Compare that to the decline in the unemployment rate during the same period in President Obama's second term.
At his second inauguration, the rate was 7.9 percent. He left office with 4.7 percent. That is 3.2 percent less. He left the office with a 4.7 percent unemployment rate, continuing a strong decline.
Under President Obama, a decline of 5.3 percentage points from when he took office; under President Trump, a decline of 1.2 percentage points.
Madam Speaker, let me give you that figure again. Under President Obama, he inherited from George Bush a declining employment. It spiked at 10 percent, and under President Obama, that came down to 4.7 percent. That is where you get the 5.3 percent reduction. Actually, he halved the unemployment rate if you figure it that way.
Under President Trump, however, he inherited a downward trend--in other words, less unemployment as opposed to more unemployment from Bush to Obama--and he has failed to keep the pace that President Obama established.
This was the decline in the unemployment rate under Barack Obama. This is what has happened: steeper decline under Obama, got to a low number, and it has been reduced by 1.2 percent as opposed to the 4.7 percent that Obama reduced it to.
While President Trump boasted that his administration would see a 6 percent GDP--that is growth in the domestic product of our country, our entire production--that would have been good; 6 percent would have been phenomenal. It was also not attained.
Over the first 11 quarters of his term, that figure was 2.6 percent, dropping to 2.1 percent in the third quarter of last year. The Federal Reserve estimates that 2020 will see it fall even lower as any short- term stimulus from his tax cut disappears. Mr. Neal is going to talk about the tax cut and what was promised and what was delivered.
Madam Speaker, I would simply point out to you that what you see is, essentially, a level 2.5 percent average growth under President Obama and under President Trump, notwithstanding the extraordinary trillion- dollar tax cut that was infused in the economy. Again, Mr. Neal will speak more to that.
It is clear the Trump tax cut did little to boost GDP as he claimed it would, and, of course, he claimed many more jobs.
On deficits and the debt, President Trump's promise would seem laughable if the reality weren't so dangerous.
Instead of reversing deficits and eliminating the debt, he has overseen an increase fueled by his 2017 tax cut that gave $2 trillion in new, unpaid-for tax cuts primarily to the wealthiest in our country.
Last week, to the surprise of no one who understands the history of Republican tax cuts, President Trump suggested he might seek cuts to Medicare and Social Security to offset the deficits created by his tax cuts. I will leave it to Chairman Yarmuth to go into greater detail about the Trump deficits.
We have all seen this President's campaign on reducing America's trade deficit, but it has increased on his watch. In fact, according to the Joint Economic Committee's report, as many as 450,000 jobs were lost in 2019 alone as a result of this President's trade wars.
The President loves to stand at the podium at his rallies and shout slogans about how his is the best economy ever and how he inherited a mess from President Obama. Those statements, sadly, as so many of his have been shown to be, are not accurate. That is a polite way to say it. The facts tell the opposite story.
Over the course of the Obama Presidency, 10.8 million jobs were created as the unemployment rate fell from, as I said, 10 percent to 4.7 percent. In the last 11 quarters of President Obama's term, real GDP growth was averaging 2.6 percent--a remarkable turnaround from the 8.4 percent deficit, decline, that he inherited, a decrease in the last quarter before he took office.
Now, annual median income, Madam Speaker, you will note, under President Obama, the red line starts declining 2008, 2009. The deepest recession that we have experienced in our lifetimes, which started in December of `07, you will see real household income declined significantly.
But you will see, when the recovery program that President Obama and Democrats put in place in our country, the American Recovery Act, you saw employment going up, average income going up, and you see it going up to $63,179.
The tax cut, you will see a real spike here. This is under President Obama, and then you see the tax cut, this line here, and then you see a flattening out. While it has increased, it has been a much slower increase. So, when he says it is the best economy, the folks here who were experiencing this kind of increase would beg to differ.
Compare that to the first 2 years of Trump's Presidency with an increase in annual median household income of $1,400. This indicated, under President Obama, an increase of $4,800 in median income, three times as much--as a matter of fact, more than three times. In fact, incomes at every level have grown faster under Democrats than under Republicans since 1968.
So this is not just picking a particular year to make a point. This is 68 years, average. The blue, Democrats, increase in every quintile. That means those at the bottom increase substantially and, yes, those at the top increase.
This is not, as some Republicans charge us with, class warfare. Everybody did better, on average, with Democratic Presidents in the 20 years during that period of time that we had the Presidency and the 30 years that the Republicans had the Presidency. Those are the averages, and you can see, in every quintile, everybody in America did better under the Democrats' economic programs.
President Trump's economy is just the latest chapter in a long story in which, time and time again, Democratic leadership has seen our economy out of a recession and danger as President Obama did when he inherited, as I said, the deepest recession anybody less than 95 years of age in our country has experienced.
This is a contrast that House Democrats will be highlighting this year when Americans will again entrust the President and Congress with crafting economic policies. That means jobs for them. That means some money to invest in their children, in their families, in their mortgages, in buying a car, a refrigerator, or a new stove or fixing their heat when it goes out.
What President Trump doesn't seem to understand, however, is that a thriving economy is more than growing the stock market.
Let me say this as an aside. I don't have a slide here now, but the average growth in the stock market under Democrats from 1948 until 2008--I am not sure exactly when we ended the study--was more in every Democratic administration.
It is about real economic security for American workers and their families; it is about whether America is still a place where everyone has a fair shot, where everyone has access to opportunities, and where everyone can get ahead. That is what that chart shows, and that is over a significant period of time.
By that measure, the President's record has been dismal.
Now, healthcare, what I started with, is one of the greatest concerns. Jobs and healthcare were our issues in the last election. We added 63 Members to the Democratic side of the aisle, which is why we are in the majority, because people knew that we were the party that was focused on healthcare and on jobs and had delivered.
This chart shows the uninsured rate. It was going down over the last 3 years, but because of the assault on the Affordable Care Act and the uncertainty that was created, as you will see, 2014, 2013, 2016 the President is elected, it comes down and flattens out. Why? Because they are not supporting healthcare. We need to get it back up so there are less and less uninsured.
Mr. Neal represents the State of Massachusetts where 100 percent of children are covered and 97 percent of adults. That is what the Affordable Care Act was based upon, the Massachusetts plan, when Governor Romney was the Republican Governor in Massachusetts.
As a result of the policies of this President, the number of Americans without health insurance rose to 8.5 percent in 2018. That was the first increase in a decade.
Not having health insurance is bad for your health and bad for your psyche and bad for your family.
His efforts, meaning President Trump, alongside congressional Republicans to repeal, undermine, and sabotage the Affordable Care Act have brought uncertainty to health insurance markets and made it harder for working families to get affordable coverage for the care they need.
We are working very hard on that. We are trying to bring prescription drug costs down. We are trying to fix the problem of surprise billing. We want to make sure that Americans have affordable, quality healthcare.
On wages, we see another lost opportunity. For 3 years, President Trump and the Republican-led Senate have refused to support legislation to raise the minimum wage, which has not been raised in over a decade, which the House finally passed a bill last year, under the Democratic majority, which tries to lift that minimum wage so people can live and support themselves when they are working 40 hours a week. No American working 40 hours a week ought not to be able to afford to support themselves and to help support a family.
According to the monthly jobs report for December, hourly wage growth slipped to its lowest rate in 18 months. When you listen to the President talk at these rallies about this economy, remember that figure and check it. Go to Google or go to some reference point. Check it.
According to the monthly jobs report for December, last month, hourly wage growth slipped to its lowest rate in 18 months. That is a far cry from the $4,000 annual salary increase President Trump promised would trickle down from his tax cuts for the wealthiest in America.
American workers deserve better. America deserves better. American exporters deserve better. American farmers and small business owners deserve better than this uncertain Trump economy. All Americans deserve better.
That is why the Democratic-led House voted last year to raise wages, ensure equal pay for equal work, and give Federal employees a long- overdue cost of living adjustment.
That is why we voted to lower prescription drug prices, a bill that sits in the Senate, untended by Senator McConnell.
That is why we voted to make it easier for more workers to save for secure retirement, thanks to Chairman Neal and the Ways and Means Committee.
That is why we voted to protect multiemployer pension funds, so that hundreds of thousands of people would not be left out in the cold after contributing to and being promised a pension in their old age.
Now, as we look to 2020, House Democrats will continue to make economic opportunity our focus. I look forward to bringing more legislation to the floor this year to ensure that we do not squander the gains of our recovery under President Obama. We will keep looking for ways to help America get ahead.
I hope all of my colleagues will look at the facts that I put forward and see what the Obama economy did and that the last 3 years have been a continuation of the Obama economy. Just look at the line. It is almost a straight line up.
I appreciate that a number of my Democratic colleagues are here this evening to add to this conversation. I yield to the gentleman from Virginia (Mr. Beyer), my friend, former Lieutenant Government, former Ambassador, and the vice chair of the Joint Economic Committee.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank Congressman Beyer, and I appreciate his leadership on the Joint Economic Committee.
I am now pleased to yield to the gentleman from Massachusetts (Mr. Neal), one of the senior Members of the House of Representatives, the dean of the Massachusetts delegation and the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, who, as I said earlier, is as knowledgeable about tax policy and its consequences as anybody in this House.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank the gentleman for his comments, and I hope the American people really focus on this. So much has been said by both sides that the American people really need to look at this themselves and figure out when did they do well, when did their families do well, who was watching out for their healthcare, who wanted to make sure that we bring up the income of those at the lowest levels of incomes in our country, and make a decision on their behalf as to who they want to support and who they believe.
Madam Speaker, I yield to the gentleman from Kentucky (Mr. Yarmuth), chairman of the Budget Committee in the House of Representatives.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank the gentleman for his comments, and I thank him for his leadership on the Budget Committee.
I might say, as a result of his work, last year, 2019, we completed the appropriations process. Unlike the previous year, when our Republican colleagues were in charge and the government was shut down when the new Congress took office, we kept the government open. There was no drama. On January 3, everybody was working and being served by their government.
Madam Speaker, I yield to the gentleman from New Jersey (Mr. Payne), whose father was such a good friend of mine and who does such an excellent job. His dad would be proud of him here in Congress.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank the gentleman for his comments; for his leadership on the minimum wage, to try to lift people up at the bottom of the wage scale; and also for his leadership on healthcare, to ensure that they have access to affordable, quality healthcare.
Madam Speaker, I yield to the gentlewoman from Pennsylvania (Ms. Houlahan), a Representative from the Philadelphia suburbs who served so well in the military of our country and then became a very successful businesswoman. I know she knows a lot about how to run a business and how to run an economy.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank the gentlewoman for her comments, and I know that she is working her district very, very hard, and listening to people, which is what we need to do.
Madam Speaker, I yield to the gentlewoman from North Carolina (Ms. Adams), who is the leader of the group that I am very enthusiastic about that is helping our historically Black colleges and universities. I thank her for her leadership on that and so many other educational issues and economic issues for our families.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank the gentlewoman for her comments.
I am now pleased to yield to the gentlewoman from Connecticut (Ms. DeLauro), one of the senior Members of the House of Representatives, the chair of the Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee that deals with so many of these issues that have been discussed over the last hour.
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I thank the gentlewoman for her comments.
Madam Speaker, how much time do I have remaining?
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I yield to the gentlewoman from Michigan (Ms. Stevens).
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Mr. HOYER. Madam Speaker, I yield back the balance of my time.
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