Dr. Schoonover's Remarks on National Security Implications of Climate Change

Floor Speech

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Ms. PINGREE. Madam Speaker, on June 5, 2019, Dr. Rod Schoonover, a Senior Analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the U.S. Department of State, testified before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. The hearing sought answers on the very real dangers and national security risks caused by climate change. The Administration, however, continued its pattern of anti-science and climate denial behavior. Though Dr. Schoonover was allowed to give his invaluable testimony, the Administration blocked his testimony from being entered into the record. We must recognize that climate change is a threat to our country's economic well-being, public health, and national security. I include in the Record part of Schoonover's summary, but urge my colleagues to read the full report here: https:// games-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/23db973- 209c-44c2-ab0f-1db57d157f51/note/7acf47a1-8ec4-4e76-a93e- 2d4dba26cb28.pdf#page=l Unclassified

Chairman Schiff, Ranking Member Nunes, and distinguished members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me to speak with you today on the national security implications of climate change.

As a U.S. intelligence officer in the Department of State Bureau of Intelligence and Research it is my job to provide clear, objective, and independent analysis to policymakers to advance U.S. national security objectives. As a scientist in the intelligence community (IC), I blend insights derived from peer-reviewed journal articles and other scientific reports with information gathered from daily intelligence reporting to provide science-informed national security analysis. My understanding of this and other issues is deepened by the cadre of talented and dedicated officers in the IC, many with technical expertise, who quietly serve U.S. interests. This Committee is already aware that the IC does not advocate for any particular set of policies, including those that address climate change. The Bottom Line

Fundamental characteristics of the global climate are moving outside the bounds experienced in modern history and there is uncertainty on how some aspects of the climate will evolve. Given the complex social and political contexts in which a multitude of changes are occurring, however, we can expect new and compounded stresses on people and societies around the world, many with outcomes important for national security.

Climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security over the next 20 years through global perturbations, increased risk of political instability, heightened tensions between countries for resources, a growing number of climate-linked humanitarian crises, emergent geostrategic competitive domains, and adverse effects on militaries. Increasingly probable amalgamations of these security concerns are especially worrisome. Climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in the next few decades but it will affect factors that that contribute to conflict, such as access to natural resources. People will increasingly decide to move because of deteriorating conditions, both within nations and into countries that are more prosperous. Perhaps most importantly, the rapidity of concurrent and compounded changes to Earth's systems, from human and natural causes, heightens the risk for unwelcome and possibly severe climate-linked surprises. Framework for Analysis

The IC's task with respect to climate change is to inform policymakers of the myriad risks and uncertainties that may lie ahead, rather than trying to predict the future. We have therefore examined a wide range of climate change effects, including those currently believed to have low probability, particularly if the ramifications could be highly impactful. The IC focuses on security considerations outside the United States, so we do not address the direct effects of climate change on the U.S.homeland. We expect, however, that many judgements could nonetheless apply to the United States.

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