United States-China Relations

Floor Speech

Mr. SULLIVAN. Mr. President, I rise this afternoon to say a few words about a critical challenge and opportunity facing the United States. For months many of us have been on the floor debating some of the important foreign policy and national security issues that our Nation faces--whether it is Islamic terrorism, ISIS, the President's flawed and dangerous Iran agreement or a resurgent Russia in Europe and the Arctic. The list of these issues is long, and it is growing. But one issue that has not really gotten much attention--I believe the attention that it deserves--and that I would like to speak about this afternoon is the long-term national security and foreign policy consequences of the rise of China.

China's President Xi Jinping is in town right now. He is visiting America. He is going to meet with President Obama on a state visit, and some of us in Congress will have an opportunity to meet with him later today. It is an opportunity to start seriously thinking about the challenges and opportunities that a rising China presents to the world and to the United States.

Perhaps we are not talking about this issue as much as we should on the floor because it doesn't seem to be an immediate issue. It is a bit of a longer term matter. But it is also something that in historical terms is happening so fast. I will give one statistic.

In 1980 China's economy was smaller than that of the Netherlands. Last year, just the incremental growth of China's economy was as large as the Netherlands' economy. They have had incredible growth. But some of our country's most deep and strategic thinkers and historians agree that the rise of China is--over the next decade or two--the paramount issue for us to focus on in the United States.

As far back as 2005, 10 years ago almost to the day, then-Deputy Secretary of State Bob Zellick, who went on to be the president of the World Bank and a former U.S. Trade Representative for the United States, a very strategic thinker, gave what was called the ``responsible stakeholders'' speech, a very well-renowned speech that people are still reading on U.S.-China relations.

In that speech 10 years ago, he said: ``How the United States deals with China's rising power is a central question in American foreign policy.''

Just a few months ago in testimony before the Armed Services Committee, Harvard Professor Graham Allison gave testimony that in many ways is reflected in an article he just published in the Atlantic yesterday on the eve of the visit of the President of China. He states in that article and in his testimony from a couple of months ago:

The preeminent geostrategic challenge of this era is not violent Islamic extremists, or a resurgent Russia. It is the impact that China's ascendance will have on the U.S.-led national order.

More specifically, Professor Allison writes that ``the defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape''--what he refers to as ``the Thucydides trap.''

He is referencing the renowned ancient Greek historian.

Professor Allison coined this term to describe the strategic dilemma and dangers that occur when a rising power rivals a ruling power, as when--an example he gives in ancient Greece--Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece which ultimately led to the Peloponnesian War.

Professor Allison has caught the attention of many, including President Xi Jinping of China, who in a speech just a few days ago in Seattle actually referenced this term--the ``Thucydides trap''--when talking about U.S.-China relations. Now, both Professor Allison and President Xi, in his speech, make it clear that conflict between the United States and China is certainly not inevitable, regardless of what he says with regard to the Thucydides trap, and I certainly would agree with that. Professor Allison, however, does appear to draw some very sobering conclusions in his recent article that should make all of us take serious pause. He concludes in his article written yesterday: ``War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the moment.'' These are his words, not mine. This is one of the most distinguished professors of international relations in the United States.

I think these words underscore the need for those of us in the Senate to give due attention to the importance of the U.S.-China relationship and the attendant risks of Graham Allison's Thucydides trap.

Fortunately, I believe we are well-positioned as an institution in the Senate to do this. In the Federalist Papers, Madison talks about one of the roles of the U.S. Senate with its Members having 6-year terms to be able to ensure lasting relations between the United States and other nations through the institution of the Senate. Perhaps more than any other part of the Federal Government, this institution has the opportunity to think strategically and act for the long-term interests of our country.

Fortunately, we also have many experts, historians, professors, and practitioners, whether it is people such as Bob Zoellick or Graham Allison or Henry Kissinger or a new generation of scholars, such as Mike Green at CSIS, who have been thinking about these issues--the Asia-Pacific, the rise in China--for decades. Their articles, books, and speeches are critical to devising national strategies to advance America's interests in the region.

This is a long-term endeavor for all of us. It is imperative that it remains on our radar screens through the course of State visits, through the course of elections, through the course of changing administrations. Contrary to what some say, we as a country do have the capacity to think and act in our long-term strategic interests as a government.

Our successful bipartisan strategy dealing with the Soviet Union, started by Kennan's famous ``X'' telegram, which created the strategy of containment over the course of decades, over the course of several administrations and several different Congresses--it was a successful long-term strategy for the United States.

From my perspective, as we look at this issue--the Asia-Pacific--its importance--the rise of China--I think a few key touchstones are important to remember. First, America is an Asia-Pacific power. My State of Alaska is an Asia-Pacific State. The United States has strong networks of alliances throughout the Asia-Pacific, and our country has built the post-World War II architecture that has enabled this dynamic region of the world to thrive in terms of peace and in terms of prosperity. In fact, when we look at the last 70 years of history in that region, we have been the linchpin of that peace and prosperity for all countries in the region, whether our strongest allies such as Japan and Korea and Australia or other countries--countries even like China--and we have earned the trust of our allies for our commitment. So we need to maintain that trust as we move forward and we need to listen to our allies in the region.

Second, we need to understand the history of the region and our involvement there better as we think through what the strategy is moving forward. I have had the opportunity to go to the National Archives a number of times already since I joined the Senate, and there is a statue outside the National Archives and it has a command on it. It says simply: ``Study the past.'' Study the past. Again, I think that as we are looking at our strategy in that region, it is critical that we need to be doing that. Professor Allison's article, as well as books, is a good start, and I think all of us need to continue that focus.

Third, no matter what strategy we end up using vis-a-vis China and the Asia-Pacific region, we have to be strong again at home. My biggest surprise as a new freshman Senator--my biggest surprise in this body is how little we, or certainly for that matter the Obama administration, talk about our economy, talk about the strength or the lack thereof of our economy. Perhaps because the performance of our economy has been so lackluster, we have even doubled down expectations.

They have this term now in Washington called ``the new normal.'' American growth rates have typically been at 3, 3.5, 4 percent GDP growth throughout most of our history. Over the last 6 years, we can barely break 2 percent GDP growth; 1.5, 2 percent. Two quarters ago, we went back into recession. They are now calling this the new normal and we need to accept this. We rarely hear the President or even the Treasury Secretary come out to the American people and say: No, we have to grow traditional levels of American growth--3.5, 5 percent, 4 percent GDP growth. The Presiding Officer knows this. He has focused on this issue. We are not doing that. We have to get back to strength at home because a continued weak U.S. economy--the new normal--growing at 1.5 percent for the next 5, 10 years will create all kinds of additional challenges for us and in my view will make the Thucydides trap that Professor Allison talks about more likely for the United States and China.

Yes, China has certain advantages, but in so many areas--in so many areas--the United States holds all the cards--in so many different areas. If we were in a global poker match and we were all at the table--all the big countries--we would look at our hand and we would see aces. Let me just name a few.

The high-tech sector, still the envy of the world; not just Silicon Valley, all over America.

Our agriculture sector. We feed the world.

Universities. We have the best universities in the world, by far--by far. Certain States in America have better top universities than all of China.

Finance and commercial aspects of our economy, the best entrepreneurs.

Energy. We have a renaissance in energy where we are now the largest producer of oil and gas in the world and the largest producer of renewables. This is a huge advantage. It is creating a rebirth of manufacturing in America.

Fisheries. We harvest some of the most amazing seafood, more than almost any other country in the world.

Foreign relations. We look at our allies in Asia, they are coming to the United States in terms of wanting to deepen their relationship with us.

And, of course, the U.S. military, the finest in the world right now. It is right now. I had the opportunity to go down to the World War II Memorial this morning and I saw a couple of Honor Flights coming in, seeing those veterans of ours who fought and defended this great Nation in World War II. We have had the best military for decades, and we are going to continue to do that.

The key is we have to unleash our economic might once again, which has been so dormant during the Obama administration. We have to do this. If we do this, we can view the rise of China from a standpoint of strength, confidence, and opportunity, not trepidation.

As Bob Zoellick mentioned 10 years ago in his ``Responsible Stakeholders'' speech: ``You hear voices that perceive China solely through the lens of fear, but America succeeds when we look to the future as an opportunity, not when we fear what the future might bring.''

I have had the opportunity to view the U.S.-China relationship from a variety of lenses, including economic, diplomatic, and even to some degree military. I previously served as the commissioner of natural resources and energy in Alaska and was able to take a trip over there with some Alaskans to look at ways to deepen our economic, trade, and energy relationship between my State and China and have them visit Alaska and participate in those meetings. I served in terms of diplomacy as an assistant secretary of state and have had numerous opportunities to travel to China with some of our top U.S. Government leaders--at the time Bob Zoellick, Secretary of the Treasury Paulson, and Secretary of State Rice--to discuss ways in which to deepen economic relationships and work on the U.S.-China relationship.

Even many years ago as a U.S. marine aboard an amphibious assault ship in the East and South China Sea during the third Taiwan Strait crisis, I was a very, very, very small player in an episode that once again demonstrated American resolve and commitment in the region.

There is a long tradition from Alaska Senators in keeping a focus on the importance of the Asia-Pacific, from both the Alaska and the U.S. perspective.

Former Senator Ted Stevens served in World War II as a Flying Tiger, flying the Hump in that part of the world, and his subsequent focus throughout his career was very much on the Asia-Pacific, as was Frank Murkowski's expertise and experience, particularly with regard to our relationship with Taiwan.

The focus on the Asia-Pacific and the rise of China is certainly one that in many ways we can view as an opportunity, certainly in my State. Last year, China became the No. 1 export market for Alaskan goods: $1.4 billion of goods exported from Alaska to China--an 18-percent increase. So I believe maintaining this focus--and we have this visit today with the President of China--is critically important not only to my State, not only to our country but also to our allies in the region.

We should all try to put more focus and our best thinking on these critical foreign policy and national security issues which, although they are not always on the front page of the papers, I believe are some of the most important long-term strategic challenges and opportunities we face in this country.

Mr. President, I yield the floor.

BREAK IN TRANSCRIPT

Source